In the early 1990s, IFPRI developed the International Model for Policy Analysis for Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to help sustainably address long term policy challenges in reducing hunger and poverty and in protecting natural resources. The IMPACT model has been continually expanded and improved to better inform the tough choices decision makers and researchers face. The latest version of the model, IMPACT Version 3, integrates information from climate, crop simulation, and water models—all linked to a core global, multi-market agricultural model.
Over the course of the last 8 months, the Portable Standard International Model for Policy Analysis for Agricultural Commodities and Trade (PS-IMPACT model) was developed to allow users to isolate one country from the wider IMPACT model. Malawi is the first application of this PS-IMPACT model. Two researchers from IFPRI Washington, D.C., Andrew Comstock and Lillian Anderson, conducted four simulations looking to 2030 using this model.
On Wednesday the 26th of September, Andrew Comstock presented results from the model simulations at the IFPRI Lilongwe office as part of the brownbag seminar series sharing early research results with the public. In their model, Comstock and Anderson analyzed thirty different crops – both rain-fed and irrigated – imposing different shocks based on the various simulations. The baseline of the model is calibrated to 2005. The results investigated the following four simulations:
- Simulation 1: increased maize yields by 20%
- Simulation 2: increased fruit and vegetable yields by 25%
- Simulation 3: decreased export marketing margins by 20%
- Simulation 4: a climate change scenario developed by Hadley Center’s Global Environment Model
Early results
The simulations yielded some interesting results. Increasing maize yields completely eliminated maize imports, as domestic production satisfied demand. As well, increasing maize yields led to increased per capita production and cropped area of other crops. The results also show that increasing fruit and vegetable yields will eliminate imports of vegetables to Malawi, and that the demand for bananas would be satisfied to the point where less land was needed for banana cultivation and could be allocated to vegetables or other crops - thus contributing to improved crop and, potentially, dietary diversity. As expected, reducing the costs to export led to increased production and cropped area for certain exported crops, resulting in higher exports for these crops. Surprisingly, climate change may have no effect on maize production per capita. And it may reduce net trade for maize due to a drastic increase in maize prices driven by world prices.
Given its relevance to ongoing policy discussions in Malawi regarding crop diversification, this presentation sparked an interesting discussion among participants. Participants suggested that the model look at other high value enterprises, such as oil seeds, and that it be shared with government partners to facilitate increased political will moving forward. Others suggested that the model takes into account existing simulations from the National Agriculture Policy (NAP) and the National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP).
The seminar presentation may be viewed below.
