A strong El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean, raising the risk of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells during Malawi’s coming agricultural season (November 2026 – March 2027), especially in the southern parts of the country. While no forecast is ever certain, history suggests that Malawi should take the threat seriously. Since reliable […]
El Niño and rising fertilizer costs: How vulnerable is Malawi in 2027?
Historically, El Niño events are strongly associated with reduced rainfall during Southern Africa’s main cropping season (December-March). Malawi, however, has sometimes escaped serious El Niño impacts. Thanks to its position on the northern edge of the region, the degree to which it is affected by drought during strong El Niño years has varied widely (Figure 1). In […]
National Policy Dialogue: Preparing for Potential El Niño Impacts on Malawi’s Food Security
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with the National Planning Commission (NPC), convened a high-level roundtable discussion to assess the potential implications of a forecast El Niño event for Malawi’s 2026/27 agricultural season and food security outlook. The event brought together senior officials from government ministries and departments namely: ministries of Agriculture, […]
El Niño Could Threaten Food Security in Malawi
The El Niño weather phenomenon brings with it significant variations in typical weather patterns. For Malawi, that variation often takes the form of severe dry weather, impacting agricultural growing conditions and harvests. A new IFPRI Malawi Strategy Support Program Policy Note looks at the potential implications of the current El Niño conditions on Malawi’s agriculture and food […]
Targeting fertilizer subsidies: Five lessons for sustainable and equitable policy reform
Fertilizer subsidy programs remain a common policy tool for promoting food security and supporting agricultural livelihoods in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), though they have serious downsides. They command substantial government resources but do not always deliver economic benefits, often undermine market development, and are linked to reduced water quality, deforestation, and other negative environmental impacts.
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