Photo credit: Melissa Cooperman/IFPRI
A new open access article by Adam M. Komarek and Siwa Msangi, first published on August 16, 2019 in Agricultural Economics, examines the ex-ante farm-household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm-household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi.
The study, conducted in Dedza district, focusses on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures.
The results of the study suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21 percent compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, the study team found, that the per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8 percent compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13 percent each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4 percent each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently.
Download and read the article here.
