This blog is based on a presentation by Dr Timothy Thomas, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI, presented during the 3rd joint national annual research symposium on ‘Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Development – Envisioning Wealth for all’, which took place on September 18-19, 2019 in Lilongwe, Malawi. The research symposium was opened by the Chief Secretary to the Government of Malawi, Mr Lloyd Muhara, and featured a keynote speech by Maria Jose Torres, the United Nations Resident Coordinator. Dr Thomas gave the opening presentation for the session on Sustainable Agriculture, focusing on ‘The Future of Agriculture in Malawi with Climate Change’.
Dr Timothy Thomas presented on current scientific models that aim to predict how population growth and climate change will affect future agricultural production in Malawi. He started his presentation by highlighting the different definitions of sustainability in agriculture. Agronomists define unsustainable agriculture based on if more nutrients and organic matter are being removed from the soil than are being replaced. But economists define unsustainability as whether expectations for the agricultural sector are more than it can deliver in the future. Overall, agriculture has to contribute to three objectives: (1) food security, especially for subsistence farming households; (2) income growth, and (3) employment. Developing agriculture is therefore not only about helping farmers develop but also recognizing that agriculture must be front and center in any national development plan.
Coping with population growth
Thomas highlighted that the population growth in Malawi is a critical factor affecting the sustainability of agriculture. According to the UN Population Division, Malawi’s population grew from 5.3 million people in 1975 to 17.6 million people in 2015, which is a 233 percent increase in 40 years and a 3 percent annual growth rate. Malawi’s population is projected to grow to 41.7 million in 2050 at the medium scenario, which is a 2.5 percent annual increase from 2015. For agriculture to keep pace with population growth, it therefore has to achieve a sustained annual growth of at least 2.5 percent in production.
Growth in agricultural production is achieved by expanding the size of land under agricultural cultivation and/or by increasing yields. Thomas explained that currently around 42 percent of land in Malawi, including forests and shrublands that have considerable value for the ecosystem, is cultivated. Once forest and shrublands are excluded, agricultural land under cultivation increases to 59 percent. Hence, Malawi has limited opportunities to increase production by expanding land under cultivation.
With Malawi’s population expected to more than quadruple by the end of the century, gains in production will mostly have to come from yield increases, cropping intensity or a different mix of crops. As agriculture in Malawi also has to fulfill an employment objective, production will have to switch to a high labor-to-land system and high value-added per unit of both land and labor – otherwise it will neither satisfy the food security objective nor the income growth objective.
It has been suggested that some crops, like sesame, are both high value-added and require high labor input. It is worth exploring whether other oil seeds or perhaps nuts or fruits or other high value crops might help contribute to the challenge of providing both employment and food security. An additional option to relieve some of the pressure on agriculture is to explore options to slow population growth.
Thomas went on to analyze whether food production has been able to keep up with population growth. The analysis focused on maize as the most dominant crop in terms of harvested area and production weight. From the early 1990s onwards, Maize production shows a high variance, which makes it difficult to precisely know what is going on. FAO statistics show that production per capita fell between 1960 and 1990 but rose between 1990 and 2015. Thomas said that while data suggests that there has been an increase in yield growth under the Farm Input Subsidies Program (FISP), the very high variance in year-to-year yields points to the need for policy interventions to reduce the variance in yields, or at least in farmer income. The promotion of irrigation could be one possibility to reduce variance, since most of it is caused by rainfall, though army worms also play some role.
Potential impacts of climate change
After looking into the challenges that population growth poses for agriculture, Thomas went on to describe the possible impact on climate change on agricultural production. He presented four different climate change models covering historical climate between 1960-1990 along with projections to 2050. The models show substantial variations in terms of projected rainfall patterns, temperature change, and geographic distribution. Hence, it is important not to over-simplify how we think about climate change. Nonetheless, all four climate change models predict a decrease in yields for all major crops in Malawi except soybeans.
Thomas then presented results from connecting the climate change models to the International Model for Policy Analysis for Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The results predict maize yields will rise until around 2030 with slower growth afterwards. Harvested area is also projected to increase steadily, so maize production is projected to rise sharply to around 2030, but then level off. Net maize imports are predicted to increase sharply from 2030 onwards, even without climate change. With high population growth, maize production cannot keep up with rising demand. However, with climate change, demand for maize is less than without climate change, because rising prices encourage consumers to substitute other less expensive foods for maize. This pattern is repeated for most of the other major crops, whose areas and production rise with climate change, with the notable exception of soybeans. Thomas highlighted that the models still have a degree of uncertainty as weather patterns are not uniform. This uncertainty calls for plans that are flexible and adaptable and good agricultural research and extension services. This includes communication with farmers to make them aware and understand about new tools.
Thomas also talked about research on how dry spells early in the season, especially when combined with high temperatures, are associated with higher levels of aflatoxin contamination in maize and groundnuts. Aflatoxin is a major contributor to stunting and malnutrition, and also has been linked to certain cancers.
Conclusions
In summarizing his presentation, Thomas concluded with several key points:
- Population growth appears to be a bigger challenge to agricultural sustainability than climate change;
- Climate change will generally adversely affect agriculture, especially in 2050-2100;
- Economic models are required to fully understand the effect of climate change, since the changes in global food demand and supply occur simultaneously with climate change;
- Making agriculture sustainable in the light of rapid population growth requires more thought and bold action;
- Developing markets and assisting farmers to move into higher-value and labor-intensive crops is one solution and
- Expansion of irrigation could be very helpful in reducing year-to-year variability and increasing yields and should serve to reduce aflatoxin contamination in drier years.
The presentation is available as SlideShare below.
Click here to download the presentation as pdf document. (5 MB)
