Wednesday, October 23, 2019, 2:00 pm - 3:30 pm
IFPRI Malawi Office
Area 14/205, Lilongwe
For directions to our office please click here.
IFPRI Malawi invites you to a Brown Bag Research Seminar presentation by Nicholas Minot (Deputy Division Director, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division), IFPRI Washington, DC.
Topic
Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex-ante analysis
Abstract
This study provides a method for ex-ante estimation of the distributional welfare effects of a change in the yield of a crop using household survey data. We apply this method to estimate the impact of a 10% increase in cassava yields on income and poverty rates among different types of Nigerian households. Using data from the 2012-13 Nigeria General Household Survey, we adopt a micro-simulation approach, taking into account both the yield increase and the resulting price reduction. The results suggest that the higher cassava yield would increase average household income 0.2 percent, generate aggregate benefits of US$ 219 million per year, and reduce poverty by 0.2 percentage points, lifting 385 thousand people from poverty. Cassava growers who have net sales (11 percent of Nigerian households) would experience a reduction in income and an uptick in poverty due to the lower price. However, net-buying growers (10 percent) and consumers (47 percent) would benefit both in terms of income and poverty reduction. Smaller farms gain, since many are net buyers who benefit from the lower price. Larger farms lose because many of them are net sellers who are adversely affected by the lower price. Because most of the benefits of the improved technology are transferred to consumers (including many rural consumers), the cassava consumption patterns are at least as important as grower characteristics and the adoption patterns in determining the distributional impact of the technology.
Please RSVP to the IFPRI Malawi office (ifpri-lilongwe@cgiar.org) if you plan to attend, or designate someone to attend in your place as space is limited.
