Date: Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Time: 03:00 pm - 04:30 pm (CAT)
Virtual Event
Please scroll down to find the recording and the presentation slides.
In this webinar, we will present the initial results of the modeling of the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 in Malawi which IFPRI has been undertaking. Two scenarios are considered: (a) 2 months of social distancing plus external shocks in April/May; (b) the proposed (but not implemented) 21-day lockdown plus social distancing and external shocks, each followed by either fast or slow lifting of restrictions during the rest of 2020. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model is used to simulate the impact of these two scenarios on GDP and sector growth, the agri-food system, poverty and government revenues on both a quarterly and annual basis. Our initial results show that 2 months of social distancing plus external shocks reduces GDP by 11.6% during April/May (around $26 million per week) with 1.1 million additional people falling temporarily below the poverty line. The largest impacts are on services and industry, but the agri-food system contracts by 8%. As restrictions are lifted, the economy recovers, but GDP still declines by 4 to 5.2% during 2020.
Presenters
Bob Baulch, Senior Research Fellow and Program Leader, IFPRI-Malawi
Rosemary Botha, Research Analyst, IFPRI-Malawi
Moderator
Jan Duchoslav, Associate Research Fellow, IFPRI-Malawi
