Following the 2015–2016 El Niño phenomenon, a maize export ban was instituted in Zambia to increase food availability and supply in the country. In a virtual brown bag held on the 22nd of September 2021, IFPRI researchers Dr. Will Martin, Dr. Jawoo Koo, and Abdullah Mamun, presented the findings of their study on the impact of the export ban on poverty in the country.
By ensuring that all maize produced in Zambia remained in the country, the export ban achieved its goal of improving maize availability. However, the increased availability of maize also led to a reduction in its price. The impact that lower maize prices have on welfare however varies from household to household: Those who buy maize for consumption benefit from lower prices while those who depend on maize sales for their income lose out.
The authors show that there are more net sellers of maize in Zambia than net buyers. Moreover, the net sellers, who are negatively impacted by low prices, tend to be already poorer than net buyers, to begin with. The export ban thus led to a small net increase in overall poverty in the country.
The researchers conclude that availability-based policy responses such as export bans may sometimes worsen – rather than alleviate – the impacts of the shocks they are meant to counter. Studies of this type should guide policy responses to shocks in order to avoid their potentially harmful effects on poor households.
