This is the first of the MwAPATA-IFPRI joint seminar series. View the full list here.
Abstract: Soil fertility investments in sub-Saharan Africa, where budgetary resources are scarce, must be well targeted. Using a causal forest algorithm and an experimental maize trial dataset matched with geocoded rainfall, temperature and soils data, we modelled site-specific, ex ante distributions of yield response and economic returns to fertilizer use. Yield response to fertilizer use was found to vary with growing season temperature and precipitation and soil conditions. Fertilizer use profitability—defined as clearing a 30% internal rate of return in at least 70% of the years—was robust to growing season climate and the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio in several locations but not in roughly a quarter of the analysed area. The resulting profitability-assessment tool can support decision makers when climate conditions at planting are unknown and sheds light on the profitability determinants of different regions, which is key for effective smallholder farm productivity-enhancing strategies.
Presenters:
- Ellen McCullough, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia.
- Julianne Quinn, Assistant Professor, Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia.
- Andrew Simons, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Fordham University.
Moderator:
- Jan Duchoslav, Research Fellow, IFPRI Malawi
Join on Zoom Meeting: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/81091741296?pwd=OSs1U0pZMW8xamxUSkh2RUlhVUNsdz09
Meeting ID: 810 9174 1296
Passcode: 057440
