Abstract: We describe the likely impact of the recurrent climatic phenomenon of El Niño on maize production in Malawi. Drawing on four decades of historical data, we highlight that in seven out of eleven El Niño years, maize harvests in Malawi suffered a significant decline of 22.5 percent on average, with the southern region of the country particularly affected. Should a Malawi’s agricultural production suffer a similar shock in the coming season, the economic ramifications would be large at about 4.4 percent of GDP. We present a comprehensive set of strategies to minimize the effect of El Niño on agricultural production and to mitigate the effects of reduced harvest on food security.
Authors: Weston Anderson, Mazvita Chiduwa, Joachim De Weerdt, Xinshen Diao, Jan Duchoslav, Zhe Guo, Henry Kankwamba, Andrew Jamali, Joseph Nagoli, James Thurlow and Liangzhi You
Read and download the policy note here (PDF 226 KB)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136971
