Abstract: The ongoing El Niño event is expected to affect Malawi’s 2026/27 rainy season, increasing the risk of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and adverse impacts on food production, particularly in the Southern Region. However, forecasts cannot reliably predict which districts will be most affected or whether the season will ultimately perform poorly. This policy note argues that forecasts should be viewed as tools for managing risk rather than predicting the future with certainty. It recommends an adaptive planning approach in which preparedness and response measures are staged, flexible, and adjusted as the season unfolds. Policymakers should implement broadly beneficial measures immediately, prepare contingent measures in advance, and activate costly or highly targeted interventions only when agreed in-season triggers are met. Such an approach allows preparation to proceed before the precise location and severity of impacts are known, while keeping the scale and targeting of responses flexible as new evidence emerges.
Authors: Jan Duchoslav and Tamuka Magadzire
Read and download the Policy Note here (PDF, 174 KB)
