Publications

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, November 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Food system financing vulnerability index

Food systems are integral to ensuring access to sustainable healthy diets for all, thereby supporting public health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. However, these systems are increasingly vulnerable to a range of shocks and stressors, from economic downturns and financial constraints to the impacts of cli mate change and pandemics. One of the most critical determinants of food system resilience is the ability to effectively manage financing vulnerabilities. Financing vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of food system components to performance degradation due to inadequate, inefficient, or uneven allocation of financial re sources. Addressing this issue is paramount for enhancing the system’s capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions while maintaining functionality.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity.

Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers.

Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed.

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, October 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).
Highlights
• Retail prices of maize increased by 4 percent in October.
• Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region and highest in the Southern region.
• ADMARC sales were reported in 5 of the 26 markets monitored by IFPRI.
• ADMARC purchases were reported in 4 markets.
• Retail prices of maize in Malawi were lower than most neighboring countries at the market exchange rate.

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income.

The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

Impacts of an innovative credit + insurance bundle for marginalized farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India

Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being.

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, September 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Women and youth in agriculture

Gendered social and cultural norms often strongly emphasize women’s roles as caregivers. Such norms may, in turn, contribute to gender patterns in economic activity, including agricultural activity. Meanwhile, youth are at a critical stage in their lives as they transition from being “dependent” household members to a more independent stage of life, with increasing caregiving and income-generating responsibilities. There may, therefore, be generational differences between youth and non-youth in terms of their contributions to economic activities—including the extent to which they are involved in one sector or another.

Knowing and understanding the gendered and generational contributions and roles of women, men, and youth in rural livelihoods and the inequalities therein are critical to designing policies and interventions. Without such evidence, policies and projects risk being designed on the basis of false assumptions, at best lowering efficiency and, at worst, leading to harmful outcomes. So far, only a handful of studies have described gender roles in Myanmar agriculture, and these rely on case study evidence and qualitative data. Little quantitative evidence is available about women’s and youth’s roles in agriculture in Myanmar and, more broadly, in the rural economy.

2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems

The 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This ATOR seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda.

Does location matter? A spatial analysis of the factors influencing adoption of cereal-legume intercropping among smallholder farming households in Malawi

This study examines the adoption of sustainable agricultural intensification practices— particularly cereal-legume intercropping—by smallholder farming households in Malawi. The focus of the study is on how spatial variation in key factors related to agricultural production and marketing influences farming households’ decision-making processes under risk. Separate analyses are done for six distinct agroecological zones in Malawi to evaluate how resource and market constraints affect farming households’ decisions to employ intercropping practices on their cropland and how the variations in these constraints have differing impacts on adoption of intercropping across different regions. This study provides valuable insights into the complexities of smallholder farming choices in diverse geographic contexts.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Malawi: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Malawi Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Innovative financing mechanisms for climate adaptation in African agrifood systems

Agrifood systems are a leading cause of climate change globally, as they are responsible for a third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the majority of which are tied to agricultural production (39 percent), followed by land use (32 percent) and supply chain activities (29 percent). Moreover, unsustainable agricultural practices continue to drive 80 percent of the loss of terrestrial biodiversity, soil degradation, and deforestation and are responsible for 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals. GHG emissions are projected to increase by 60 to 90 percent through 2050 unless corrective action is taken (Apampa et al. 2021). Africa’s share of global GHG emissions is small (2 to 3 percent) but rising, with agriculture and land use change as major contributors (Adolph, Griffiths, and Hou-Jones 2023; FAO 2022).

Adaptation actions to climate change in African agriculture: Effectiveness and challenges

Climate change poses a significant burden to African development and economic growth, impacting households at both national and regional levels. While accounting for only 3–4 percent of global emissions, Africa is most vulnerable to climate change due to low levels of socioeconomic growth (Kikstra et al. 2022). Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, environmental degradation, inadequate infrastructure, widespread poverty, and increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. These factors make Africa highly susceptible to climate-related disruptions such as droughts and floods and can amplify the impact of climate-related disasters on communities, economies, and ecosystems (UNECA 2013; WMO 2020). Effective adaptation strategies and risk financing mechanisms are crucial for building regional adaptive capacity and resilience.

The impact of climate change on African economies and opportunities for agrifood system transformation

As in the rest of the world, the climate is changing in Africa, with data showing a slightly faster warming trend than the global average of around +0.2°C per decade for the 1991–2022 period. In Africa, the average rate of change of temperature was around +0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2022, while it was estimated at +0.2°C per decade between 1961 and 1990. In addition, all six African subregions have experienced an increase in warming over the past 60 years compared with the period before 1960. Due to global warming, Africa is observing a change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones (WMO 2023). For instance, the report on the State of the Climate in Africa in 2022 (WMO 2023) showed that precipitation anomalies were above the 1991–2020 average in northeastern Africa, large parts of West Africa, the eastern Sahel region, Sudan, and parts of South Africa. In addition, several regions experienced rainfall deficits including the western part of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of southern Africa, and Madagascar. Sea level rise in Africa’s seven coastal regions has been similar to the global sea level average rate of increase of 3.4 millimeters (plus or minus 0.3 millimeters) per year between 1990 and 2020. In addition, extreme weather events are growing in frequency and intensity. With respect to extreme weather events including droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones, data from the Emergency Event Database in Africa showed that 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards were reported in 2022 (WMO 2023).

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes

In this chapter we review Africa’s progress in CAADP process implementation and on the CAADP RF indicators to highlight areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. The chapter examines progress on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 13.2). Details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress on the RF indicators is discussed across different aggregated geographic and economic groupings of African countries by comparing trends in the RF indicators during the first five years after the adoption of CAADP (2003–2008) with later subperiods (2008–2014 and 2014–2023), with a particular focus on the Malabo Declaration period of 2014–2023.

A nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy for food systems transformation in Africa

Africa’s commitment to creating a sustainable and self-sufficient economy for its rapidly growing population has led to programmatic actions aimed at meeting local food, energy, and material demands sustainably and without compromising planetary boundaries (Africa Business Page 2022; Agri SA 2023). The bioeconomy has become a primary focus of this transformative blueprint, generally positioned as a vehicle for generating and using bioresources in meeting local demands for abundance, sustainable goods, and services (Gatune, Ozor, and Oriama 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). However, the implementation momentum of the bioeconomy is incumbent on a well-planned and objective-oriented policy framework that supports generation of scientific evidence and reasonable investment structures, among other requirements for implementation (East African Community 2022; Pachón et al. 2018).

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.

How do videos fit into current agricultural advisory services? Lessons from Kenya and Uganda

While video extension is a recognized means to overcome the challenges posed by traditional agricultural advisory services, adoption has been limited. This paper presents two case studies conducted in Kenya and Uganda that explore the potential of video extension for promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. In Kenya, videos were rolled out by GROOTS Kenya, which predominantly serves women farmers. In Uganda, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries’ Agricultural Extension Services implemented the video rollout, focusing on both women and men farmers. We used qualitative research linked to both video rollouts to understand the benefits and challenges linked to the intervention. We also compared the implementation strategies used in the two countries to evaluate the suitability of videos as a “best fit” advisory provision tool. Both women and men farmers enjoyed watching the videos. They improved farmers' access to information, resulting in increased knowledge and adoption of CSA practices. Costs involved in some practices affected their adoption as did lack of intrahousehold decision-making power, particularly for women. In some cases, infrastructural challenges complicated the video showings. The findings underscore the importance of complementing traditional agricultural extension with interactive and context-specific video content without replacing and neglecting other modes of extension, as well as the need for political support to ensure the scalability and long-term success of video extension initiatives.

Climate action through reducing food loss and waste: Lessons from Bangladesh, Malawi and Nepal

Reducing food loss and waste (FLW) is crucial to improving food security, reducing malnutrition, providing livelihoods for food system workers, and is key to combating climate change. Overall, food systems contribute an estimated 33 percent to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; food waste alone is responsible for eight to 10 percent. Yet, most countries that have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for reducing carbon emissions under the Paris Agreement have not included any commitments for reducing FLW. Many national FLW policies are not aligned with climate change goals and the NDCs. To make this bridge, countries must build supportive regulatory frameworks to reduce agrifood system emissions and include FLW as a mitigation measure.

From April to June 2024, the USAID-funded Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI), through its Asia program led by the International Food Policy and Research Institute, held national level consultations in Bangladesh, Malawi, and Nepal on FLW management.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, August 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Can farmer collectives empower women and improve their welfare? Mixed methods evidence from India

Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered - can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women's empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms.

Gender and age gaps in voice & agency in community governance: The value of female local political representation in India and Africa South of the Sahara under intensifying conflicts and climate uncertainty

Expanding women’s voice and agency (VA) within governance and decision-making has increasingly been recognized as necessary for promoting women’s welfare, community development, and inclusive food systems. VA are critical components of gender equality, in addition to access to resources and economic opportunities. While agency relates to an individual’s ability to make meaningful choices (our specific focus is on choices made beyond the household), voice within community governance and decision-making relates to an individual’s ability to play a public role in decision-making processes that affect one’s life. Exercising VA within community governance and decision-making involves having a meaningful say in the public sphere. Women’s VA within communities may strengthen resilience, increase women’s access to essential resources, improve women’s decision-making power in various domains including the household, and facilitate broader social networks for women. Sustainable Development Goal five on gender equality specifically targets the full and effective participation and equal opportunities for leadership for women at all levels of political life. However, gender gaps in VA are persistent. These gaps can be further aggravated by adverse external shocks, such as climate uncertainty and conflicts, which can impact resources, capital, and economic opportunities and which are often disproportionately harmful to women.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

What role does conflict play in fertilizer use and maize yield response in Nigeria?

While increased use of inorganic fertilizer has been recommended to achieve increased maize productivity, studies on the effects of violent conflicts have also demonstrated the possible moderating influence of conflict on agricultural input use. However, the various pathways and extent through which affects fertilizer use and maize yield response to fertilizer use remain poorly understood. In this study, we used the ACLED geocoded longitudinal dataset based on the Nigeria LSMS-ISA panel survey to assess the impact of violent conflicts on fertilizer use and maize yield response in Nigeria. Understanding this effect of conflict on fertilizer use and maize yield response could be relevant to better understand smallholders resource use decisions in the context of other countries experiencing similar violent and serves as building block for understanding how factors outside the control of agronomic field experiments affect economic incentives for fertilizer use and yield of smallholder farmers.

Women's Empowerment in Agricultural Governance (WEAGov) technical workshop: India pilot study

Gender Equality research initiative
Gender Equality (HER+) is a One CGIAR Research Initiative seeking to address the following four dimensions of gender inequality in agrifood systems:
o Women’s lack of agency or limited ability to define and act on goals, make decisions that matter to them,
and participate in the economy and in public life;
o Women’s lack of access to and control over resources;
o Social norms that discriminate based on gender; and
o Policies and governance that fail to include and benefit women.

HER+ uses impactful gender research to address the four dimensions of gender inequality by applying gender-transformative approaches to address harmful norms. It does this by bundling innovations for women’s empowerment, leveraging social protection to increase women’s access to and control over resources, and promoting inclusive governance and policies for increased resilience. HER+ will generate learning and evidence on levers and entry points to disrupt the foundations of inequality in agrifood systems (AFS).

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, June 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cash transfer programs have become increasingly popular tools for fighting chronic poverty and food insecurity in lowand middle-income countries (Fiszbein and Schady, 2009; USAID, 2022; WFP, 2023). Cash transfers offer recipients flexibility by permitting them to finance immediate consumption needs or to increase future income streams through investments and savings. Moreover, these programs are generally feasible to implement and scale across diverse contexts. While studies consistently show cash transfers effectively reduce poverty in the short term, the evidence on their long-term impact is less clear.

Feasibility of nationwide warehouse receipt system: An assessment of the potential for a nationwide warehouse receipt system and recommendation for the requisite legal and regulatory framework

Warehouse receipts systems (WRS) have been used to tackle multiple challenges faced by farmers. In the absence of adequate collateral and consequent credit constraints, a WRS enables the use of inventory as collateral for loans, thus removing a key constraint farmers face. With growing digital reach, electronic based Negotiable Warehouse Receipts (e-NWR) that can be swapped, exchanged and traded and can assist in deepening financial markets while maintaining the integrity of the system. While e-NWRS can potentially address farmer level constraints, they can also be viewed from a larger policy perspective as a system that aids government plans for food security and manage public procurement operations better and more nimbly; it can also play a key role for enhancing the efficiency and food quality and safety along value chains by enabling mid-stream players like traders and importers to manage these chains better. This report seeks to inform the policy process around e-NWRS by focusing on the potential of Ware house Receipt Financing, more broadly, in the agricultural development of Bangladesh. To do this we review global evidence as well as evidence closer to home, within South Asia, to understand the pre-conditions and prerequisites for a successful system.

Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Over the last 20 years, a burgeoning scholarly literature has analyzed the effects of cash transfer and cash plus interventions in a wide range of contexts and using a range of empirical designs. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled effect of any cash or cash plus intervention on livelihoods-related outcomes (consumption, income and labor supply), ultimately compiling 305 different treatment estimates from 155 treatment arms in 104 studies (and in 43 countries). Using random effects and multilevel models, our findings suggest that cash transfer programming is associated with an increase of between $1 and $2 in monthly household consumption and income per $100 in cumulative transfers, an effect that persists for a period of roughly three years (inclusive of the period of program implementation); this effect is meaningfully larger (as much as $4 larger) for cash transfer programs that also include a cash plus livelihoods intervention. There are no significant effects observed on labor force participation. We also present a range of estimates capturing the longer-term (cumulative) effects of cash transfers on consumption under alternate assumptions.

Farmer groups as ICT Hubs: Findings from a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Malawi

Many rural producer groups face poor management practices, low productivity, and weak market linkages. An information and communication technology (ICT)-based intervention bundle was provided to producer groups to transform them into ICT hubs, where members learn about and adopt improved management practices and increase their productivity and incomes. The intervention bundle includes phone messages and videos, promotion of the call center/hotline, and facilitation of radio listening clubs and collective marketing. The study, a cluster-randomized controlled trial, randomly assigned 59 groups into treatment groups and 59 into control groups. After 18 months of interventions, results show positive but small impact on crop sales (USD65 per household) and no impact on productivity. The income effect was mainly from Kasungu and Nkhota-kota, which experienced increased production and sales of rice, soybean, and groundnut and received higher prices due to collective marketing. Farmers in Kasungu and Nkhota-kota improved a few agricultural management practices, while farmers in other districts did not improve their management practices. Results show more farmers accessing phone messaging on agriculture and markets, greater awareness and use of the call center, more listening groups established, and more farmers—especially women—joining these groups. Nevertheless, coverage and uptake remain very low, which are likely reasons for the limited impact.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Ghana

Sustainable intensification (SI) of the smallholder sector in Africa south of the Sahara is among the approaches pursued to build resilient food systems that can supply nutritionally adequate food in the face of rapid population growth and climatic changes. This study assesses the impact of Africa RISING, an SI program in Ghana implemented in the poorest and most food insecure areas of the country since 2012. The program first validated and then scaled up a wide range of SI interventions focused on improved agronomic management and crop cultivars; improved livestock feed, housing conditions, and species; crop-livestock integration; integrated natural resource management; vegetable production and nutritional education; and small-scale mechanization. Impact is estimated using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (conducted in 2014 and 2020), propensity score matching, and difference-indifferences techniques. The study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with those of two different control groups—one residing in program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains—environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two control groups. Results from panel data analyses show improvements in several indicators in the environmental and productivity domains. We also find a positive impact on use of conservation practices (fallowing, disc/moldboard ploughing, manure), groundnut yield, livestock, net crop income, and women’s likelihood of becoming members of farmers groups relative to non-beneficiaries. We do not find a statistically significant effect on consumption- and asset-based poverty rates, household dietary diversity, and several indicators of maternal and child nutrition. For both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, the share of monetary-based non-poor, dietary diversity, and food security have declined between baseline (2014) and follow-up (2020) likely due COVID-19. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned for informing future program design and impact assessments.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Tanzania

Sustainable intensification (SI) of the smallholder sector in Africa south of the Sahara is among the approaches pursued to build resilient food systems that can supply nutritionally adequate food in the face of rapid population growth and climatic changes. This study assesses the impact of an SI program in Tanzania implemented in the poorest and most food insecure areas of the country since 2012. The program first validated and then scaled up a wide range of SI interventions focused on improved agronomic management and crop cultivars; improved livestock feed, housing conditions, and species; crop-livestock integration; integrated natural resource management; vegetable production and nutritional education; and small-scale mechanization. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (conducted in 2014 and 2022), propensity score matching, and difference-in-differences techniques. The study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within-village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison)—on several indicators across five SI domains environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. Results from panel data analyses show improvements in several indicators in the environmental and productivity domains. We also find positive impact of participation in Africa RISING on several indicators under all the considered domains: beneficiaries were less likely to experience soil erosion, used more inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds) per hectare, obtained higher legume yields, were more likely to produce meat and dairy, reported higher net livestock income, and experienced fewer months of food insecurity. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, overall, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned for informing future program design and impact assessments.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Malawi

This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a large-scale sustainable intensification (SI) program that has been implemented in Central Malawi’s Dedza and Ntcheu districts beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized maize, maize-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, cereal-legume rotation, and double-row planting of legumes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of panel data and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allowed us to estimate impact by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison). We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. The within-village comparison shows positive impact on several agricultural and economic indicators including access to agricultural information, value of harvest, on-farm diversity, labor profitability, annual net household income, per capita household consumption expenditure, household wealth, and household dietary diversity score. We do not find a statistically significant impact on human indicators such as child and maternal nutrition. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights important lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Mali

This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a sustainable intensification (SI) program, implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles in southern Mali beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized groundnut and sorghum, crop-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, access to extension services, and fertilizer microdosing, while preserving ecosystem services in the face of projected population growth and climatic changes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (surveys conducted in 2014 and 2022) and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within-village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains—environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. We find few statistically significant differences in the averages of the characteristics in the environmental and productivity domain among households in the within-village and out-of-village comparisons, most likely because of misreporting of program participation. Overall comparisons between households in target and non-target villages show a positive impact of AR on environmental variables such as access to extension services, and adoption of improved crops; on productivity variables such as green bean, cotton and okra yield; and on economic variables such as an increase in the non-agricultural wealth index; but no statistically significant effect on human and social indicators, namely household dietary diversity, food consumption scores, and nutritional indicators for children 0–59 months old and women 15–49 years old. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

Africa RISING impact assessment report

This report summarizes lessons from cross-country analyses of the impact of the Africa RISING (AR) program. Implemented in six countries—Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mali, and Ghana—AR aimed to provide pathways out of hunger and poverty for smallholders by sustainably intensifying their farming systems in order to enhance income and food security, particularly for women and children, while conserving or enhancing the natural resource base. Phase I (2012–2016) focused on the validation of demand-driven sustainable intensification (SI) innovations, while Phase II (2016–2022) focused on the scaling of a subset of validated SI innovations in partnership with development partners.

Our impact assessment studies covered all program countries, except Zambia, and are based on two rounds of household panel survey data, excluding Ethiopia for which program effect is estimated using one round of survey data. Impact is estimated using the difference-in-differences method for countries with panel data or, for Ethiopia, based on simple comparison of outcomes between program beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. The choice of impact indicators is guided by the Sustainable Intensification Assessment Framework (SIAF) framework and survey data availability. Impact indicators encompass the five sustainable intensification (SI) domains discussed in the SIAF: environment, productivity, economic, human, and social.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, May 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline process evaluation report

This process evaluation (PE) is part of a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) of the use of a new pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria, a project led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). While the IE draws from a representative sample of 1,399 farmers to determine the causal impacts of the use of PBR cowpea, the PE complements the IE by exploring in detail the potential adoption of the PBR cowpea variety and the reasons for adoption or non adoption, including its potential impacts on actors throughout the value chain. A program impact pathway (PIP) is the basis of this PE. The PIP identifies how impacts emerge from program inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes to highlight barriers and facilitators of adoption. Given that this PE was conducted before the rollout of PBR cowpea in the IE, the analysis focuses on the potential of this innovative seed to achieve positive outputs and outcomes based on the PIP. Qualitative data were gathered from eight focus group discussions with farmers and 180 semi-structured interviews conducted with farmers, extension agents, seed dealers, and cowpea traders from eight local government areas (LGAs) in the states of Adamawa and Kwara. Given that the data are qualitative, the data are not representative. However, important insights were found that can help guide the IE.

2023 IFPRI A-133 (Uniform guide)

2023 IFPRI audited financial statements

Social protection and gender: policy, practice and research

Gender considerations in the design and delivery of social protection programs are critical to meet overall objectives of reducing poverty and vulnerability. We provide an overview of the policy discourse and research on social protection and gender in low- and middle-income countries, focusing on social assistance, social care, and social insurance. Taking a ‘review of reviews’ approach, we aggregate findings from rigorous evaluations on women's health, economic, empowerment, and violence impacts. We show there is robust evidence that social assistance has beneficial effects across all four domains. In addition, there is emerging evidence that social care has positive impacts on women’s economic outcomes, but scarce evidence of its impacts on other domains. Aggregated evidence on the impacts of social insurance are lacking. Key design elements facilitating positive impacts for women relate to gender targeting; quality complementary programming; replacing conditionalities with soft nudges; ensuring the value, frequency, and duration of benefits are sufficient; and gender-sensitive operational components. We close with a discussion of evidence gaps and priorities for future research.

IFPRI's country programs: Facilitating country-led food systems transformation

In most low- and middle-income countries, agrifood systems constitute a sizable share of economic activity and serve as a primary source of livelihoods, especially for poorer members of the population. As a result, national development strategies frequently put strong emphasis on the agrifood sector to achieve key goals, such as accelerating economic growth, reducing poverty, improving food and nutrition security, and confronting climate change. This emphasis was confirmed at the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit, where more than 100 countries committed to transforming their food systems to make them more productive, nutrition-focused, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable, and it was further reinforced by the Food and Agriculture Declaration at COP28. To achieve these desired transformations, governments require data and research based evidence to assess the situation, identify solutions, and prioritize actions. Governments are also increasingly interested in enhancing institutional capacity to support country-led development pathways.

Measuring land rental market participation in smallholder agriculture can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

The emergence of rural land rental markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is recognized as a key component of the region’s ongoing economic transformation. However, the evidence base on land market participation relies on survey-derived measures, which do not always cohere when compared and triangulated, suggesting the possibility of non-trivial measurement error. We report the results of a priming and list experiments designed to shed light on a persistent mystery in rural household survey data from Africa: why there are so many fewer self-reported landlords (renters-out) than tenants (renters-in)? Our design addresses two hypotheses using experimental data from Ethiopia. First, rented-out and rented-in land may be systematically underreported because enumerators and respondents are typically primed to emphasize parcels that are actively managed/cultivated by the household. Second, rented or sharecropped-out land may be systematically underreported because of respondents’ reluctance to acknowledge an activity for which public disclosure may have negative repercussions. We address the first hypothesis with a priming experiment by exposing a random subset of respondents to a nudge that explicitly reminded them to fully account for all land, including rented/sharecropped-in and rented/sharecropped-out. We address the second hypothesis with a double-list experiment, designed to elicit true rates of land renting and sharecropping-out. We find that nudging induces about 4 percentage points increase (or 13% in relative terms) in the share of households participating in renting in or sharecropping-in practices but has negligible effects on reported rates of renting and sharecropping-out. Interestingly, our list experiment indicates much higher revealed rates of renting-out (14-15%) than is reflected in the nominal parcel-roster responses (3%). The magnitude of the latter finding fully explains the apparent difference in renting in versus renting-out rates derived from the regular parcel roster responses. These results indicate that efforts to document land market participation rate and associated impacts must overcome large systematic reporting biases.

Demand-side approaches: Supporting healthier food choices

Understanding individual food choices and their net aggregate — which constitutes demand — is essential for any effort to reshape food systems to achieve broad nutrition and sustainability goals. This chapter presents an overview of food choice and consumer food demand in complex food systems, provides a summary of evidence for demand-side approaches to improve the healthfulness of diets, and identifies key areas where demand-side approaches can foster healthier food choices to achieve optimal health and nutrition.

Measuring women's empowerment in national surveys: Development of the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS)

Monitoring progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5—achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls—remains challenging unless we incorporate women’s empowerment metrics into nationally representative and multi-topic surveys. To address this data gap, we designed the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) as a streamlined empowerment module suitable for the 50x2030 Initiative, a global partnership that aims to build capacity and close the agricultural data gap in 50 countries by 2030, as well as other large multi-topic surveys. WEMNS measures women’s and men’s empowerment and is applicable to urban and rural areas and a variety of livelihood strategies (farming, self-employment, wage labor) across countries in different stages of structural transformation. WEMNS is a counting-based, multidimensional index composed of four domains: intrinsic agency, instrumental agency, collective agency, and agency-enabling resources. Each domain is measured with binary indicators derived from question sets in the WEMNS module. In this paper, we describe the development and testing of WEMNS and its components, including: (1) WEMNS's distinctiveness from other empowerment metrics; (2) the iterative approach used to develop and pilot the WEMNS module in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Malawi, and Nepal, using cognitive interviewing, phone surveys, and face-to-face surveys; (3) analysis of quantitative pilot data; and (4) a summary of the findings from the cognitive interviewing. The paper concludes with a discussion of lessons learned and possibilities for further development of WEMNS and other empowerment metrics.

Implementer-Led Evaluation and Learning (IMPEL) evaluation of SPIR II RFSA - Midline survey report

The objective of this report is to present results from the midline survey conducted as part of the IMPEL evaluation of SPIR-II, a randomized controlled trial launched in 2022. The second phase of the Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience (SPIR-II) project aims to enhance livelihoods, increase resilience to shocks, and improve food security and nutrition for rural households vulnerable to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The project is situated within Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the largest safety net programs in Africa. Funded by USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), SPIR-II is implemented by World Vision International (lead), CARE, and ORDA in the Amhara and Oromia regions of Ethiopia.

The IMPEL SPIR-II impact evaluation employs an experimental design with three arms comparing two treatment combinations of livelihood and nutrition graduation model programming provided to PSNP beneficiaries relative to a control group receiving only PSNP transfers. The treatment assignment is randomized at the kebele level in 234 kebeles. In the first arm (T1; the control group), PSNP is implemented by the government with SPIR II support for the provision of cash and food transfers only (no supplemental programming). In the second arm (T2), SPIR-II programming is rolled out to PSNP beneficiary households in conjunction with nurturing care groups targeting enhanced infant and young child nutritional practices. In the third arm (T3), PSNP beneficiary households receive SPIR-II programming and nurturing care groups (NCGs), supplemented with additional targeted cash transfers to pregnant and lactating women.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, April 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Review of global agricultural emission databases

Since the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) has consistently risen, leading to a 1.15°C increase in global mean temperatures by 2022. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms human activities as the primary cause of global warming, with emissions continuing to rise. Climate change has resulted in adverse impacts on various fronts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. International efforts, including the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, aimed at stabilizing green-house gas concentrations. These efforts were followed by the Paris Agreement in 2015, focusing on limiting global temperature increases and relying on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) from countries.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates Countries to develop and regularly update national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. These inventories, aligned with IPCC methodologies, serve as crucial tools for transparent reporting, building mutual trust among countries for effective climate change agreements. National GHG inventories play a vital role in policy development, monitoring impact, and tracking progress toward achieving NDCs outlined in inter-national agreements, such as the Paris Agreement.

Varying capacities for GHG inventory development among developing and developed countries, coupled with diverse reporting requirements, create challenges in data comparability. Developed countries face rigorous annual submission requirements, producing comprehensive National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Format tables. In contrast, developing countries submit their national GHG inventories through Biennial Update Reports (BURs), and flexibility is granted to Least Developed Country Parties (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) regarding submission timelines. The re-porting landscape is progressing, with the introduction of the biennial transparency report (BTR) for Paris Agreement Parties. The BTR, due by December 31, 2024, will convergence in methodologies be-tween countries.

Assessing the impact of rice price stabilization policies in Bangladesh: Results from a stochastic spatial equilibrium model

Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month.

One set of simulations tests alternative levels of distribution, finding that cutting distribution to 1 million tons would have minimal effects on the level of rice price stability. Another set of simulations tested different import tariff levels, including the baseline rate of 25%1. We find that lower tariffs result in both lower rice prices and less price instability, as world rice prices tend to be more stable than local prices. Simulating a buffer stock with different price bands shows that a narrow band can achieve high price stability but at a high fiscal cost. A 20 T/kg (USD 0.26/kg) price band generates similar price stabilization at a lower cost compared to current policy. However, it is difficult to set the “right” purchase and sale price, and many simulations result in exhausting reserves or reaching warehouse capacity. An adaptive buffer stock, in which the price is adjusted as the stock runs too low or too high, solves some of these problems. In general, the study finds that current procurement and distribution patterns do not match well with the regional and monthly patterns of surplus and deficit, possibly reflecting multiple and conflicting goals of the public food distribution system.

Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

This paper explores the broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers by grouping farmers according to characteristics of the head of household, the degree of commercialization of their farms, size of livestock holdings and other factors.

We use statistical methodologies, including factor and cluster analysis, combined with existing knowledge of the agricultural sector to define five types of Rwandan farmers, separated into two broad groups. The first group (Group A) includes three types broadly classified as less wealthy, less commercialized, with a net negative gross margin. Within this group the three types of farmers include: Type 1—Less commercialized older male headed households with larger families, Type 2—Better educated, youth headed households, who are more market oriented but have smaller land holdings, Type 3—Older female headed households who produce relatively lower agricultural production value relative to their assets owned.

The second group (Group B) comprises two types of farmers. This group are wealthier, sell more crops with positive gross margins and larger landholdings. More specifically, farm type 4 is commercialized with higher access to agricultural extension services and inputs and farm type 5, also highly commercialized, but has significant livestock holdings as well.

Taken together, these two groups, and five farm types, provide a framework to aid in understanding how commercialization takes place in smallholder Rwandan agriculture. This framework may also help in understanding how potential interventions would be received by various types of Rwanda farmers, thereby facilitating more efficient targeting of agricultural interventions.

Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation.

2023 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2023 Annual Report offers highlights from our research around the world and of our analysis and communications on addressing global challenges that contribute to hunger and malnutrition. In 2023, IFPRI continued the critical work on crisis and resilience-building that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising food prices. Our research also continued to inform policymakers and stakeholders on climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, all with attention to gender and the world’s most vulnerable people, with the goals of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition.

A landscape analysis of youth engagement in agripreneurship in Malawi

This report aims to explore the multidimensional challenges and opportunities for youth in agripreneurship in Malawi for a better understanding of interventions for youth in agribusiness. It examines the enabling and disenabling environment for young agripreneurs and how best to engage youth within the agribusiness sector. The report draws on in-depth interviews, workshops, and secondary literature to highlight key issues and strategies to engage youth agripreneurs in Malawi. It also offers recommendations for actors, practitioners, and policymakers to enhance transformative interventions for youth participation in agribusiness. Suggested measures include improving access to input, market, and equipment, setting up quota systems targeting youth agripreneurs, and better coordinating youth programs between ministries and the private sectors. The report also emphasized that these strategies are not just to achieve youth inclusion in agribusiness but also for the sustainability of youth programs which contribute to building resilient societies.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, March 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Agricultural service delivery during turmoil: The state of agricultural extension and crop advisory services in Myanmar

Access to agricultural extension and crop advisory services can play a crucial role in ensuring widespread and appropriate use of new and improved agricultural technologies, but the delivery and use of such services is not well understood in Myanmar. We assess their use based on repeated large-scale and nationally representative farm surveys from 2020 onwards, as well as on insights from key informant interviews and secondary data. The major findings are the following:
1. Agricultural extension use is low and declining. Before the crisis years – due to COVID-19 and a military coup – agricultural extension provision and use in Myanmar was at much lower levels than in neighboring countries. There has been a further decline in use since. Forty-one percent of farmers reported to have received crop advice during the monsoon of 2020, but this share declined by 9 percentage points to 32 percent of farmers in the monsoon of 2022.
2. In-person agricultural extension is more widely used than digital extension. In the last dry season, 26 and 20 percent of the farmers relied on in-person and digital extension respectively.
3. The private sector is the main provider of in-person agricultural extension. During the last dry season, the main provider of in-person agricultural extension was the private sector (used by 18 percent of the farmers), followed by the public sector (13 percent of the farmers), and NGOs (6 percent). Previous seasons show similar shares.
4. In-person agricultural extension has been declining since 2020. In the last three years, there has been a significant decline in the provision of in-person extension services by all providers. In the case of the public sector in particular, the number of agricultural extension events in 2021/22 dropped by more than 50 percent compared to before the crisis years.
5. Digital agricultural extension service provision increased rapidly before 2020. Before the COVID-19 pandemic and the political crisis, the provision of digital extension services grew rapidly, linked to the rapid expansion of mobile cellphone networks and the spread of cheap smart phones. The total number of posts on Facebook by agricultural companies and organizations from July 2015 until November 2019 more than tripled. The biggest growth in posts was seen in 2018 and 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
6. Digital agricultural extension provision decreased immediately after the coup, but then expanded again in the years after. It was used by 20 percent of the farmers during the last dry season. Most users started using digital agricultural extension since the COVID-19 pandemic and the political crisis. After the initial drop in 2021 - as the use of Facebook was banned and as there were severe communication blockages - there has been an increase in activity since, and this has occurred despite the persistent communication and internet problems and reduced mobile network access in the country.
7. Digital agricultural extension is mostly provided through Facebook by agricultural input companies and social enterprises. The most widely used services are provided through Facebook pages, that for a number of organizations and companies have millions of followers. An analysis of the posts on these Facebook pages shows they contain more technical information than product advertisements, even so for (almost) all commercial input retail companies. We also recently note the establishment of farmer extension groups – a more interactive model – and specific commodity focused groups on Facebook. There are also groups on other online platforms, including specialized agricultural apps and call centers. However, these platforms are less used. Digital extension services are almost exclusively provided by the private sector, including social businesses.
8. Use of agricultural extension is non-inclusive, with less educated, more remote, female, and smaller farmers accessing them less, for digital as well as for in-person extension. We also note an important difference by age, with older farmers relying more on in-person services and younger ones more on digital extension.
9. Conflict-affected areas access agricultural extension services significantly less frequently. Farmers residing in townships under martial law – 13 percent of the townships – use any extension (in-person or digital) service less (8 percent compared to townships not under martial law, often because they lack access to the internet in these townships). While farmers residing in the most insecure areas use in-person extension less (11 percent less), they are however able to rely on digital services to a similar extent as farmers in the more secure townships.

The findings of the study have a number of important implications.
1. Scaling of digital extension. Given the widespread insecurity and mobility constraints in the country, limiting in-person travel, alternative digital opportunities have recently emerged that can provide crop advisory services at scale, and especially in some – but not all – of the conflict-affected areas. The scaling-up of such services would be very much welcomed, given that currently only one out of five farmers in Myanmar are relying on such services.
2. Leverage the experience of the private sector. The private sector is most active in agricultural extension, in-person and digital. It has been leading the pivot from in-person to the provision of digital services – not only focusing on sales of their products, but very much being involved in crop advice overall – providing important opportunities to work with these initiatives to finetune and extend the reach of agronomic and other advice for farmers, especially as a large share of farmers is not yet reached by current agricultural extension models.
3. Embrace innovations. Innovations in digital agriculture are quickly emerging - such as chatbots and A.I. - but are not yet being used to their fullest extent in Myanmar. Further piloting, testing, and evaluating the impact of such innovations should be encouraged.
4. Ensure internet access. Access to the internet is problematic in Myanmar – more than 40 percent of all households in Myanmar reported in a recent national survey that they never or only occasionally use the internet - and further efforts to ensure access, especially in conflict affected areas, as well as improve digital literacy should be encouraged.
5. Assess impact of agricultural extension. Despite the interest in the country, few rigorous assessments have been done on the impact of different modalities of extension on adoption of improved technologies and agricultural performance. This would be useful evidence to stimulate the scale-up of the most promising models.

Nutrition-sensitive agriculture diversification and dietary diversity: Panel data evidence from Tajikistan

Nutrition-sensitive agricultural diversification continues to receive interest among developing country stakeholders as a viable option for achieving dual goals of poverty reduction and food/nutrition security improvements. Assessing the effectiveness of this strategy is also essential in countries like Tajikistan. We attempt to enrich the evidence base in this regard. We assess the linkages between household-level agricultural diversification and dietary diversity (both household- and individual-levels) using unique panel samples of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province. Using difference-in-difference propensity-score methods and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions, we show that higher agricultural diversification together with greater overall production per worker and land at the household level leads to higher dietary diversity, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Typology analyses and crop-specific analyses suggest that vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products and eggs are particularly important commodities for which a farmer’s own production contributes to dietary diversity improvement. Furthermore, decomposition exercises within the subsistence farming framework suggest that nutritional returns and costs of agricultural diversification vary across households, and expected nutritional returns may be partly driving the adoption of agricultural diversification. In other words, households’ decisions to diversify agriculture may be partly driven by potential nutritional benefits associated with enhanced direct on-farm access to diverse food items rather than farm income growth alone. Our findings underscore the importance of supporting household farm diversification in Tajikistan to support improved nutrition intake, especially among those living in remote areas. In a low-income setting with limited local employment opportunities that is vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, this will likely continue to be one of the most straightforward and realistic paths to improving household’s nutrition resilience.

Assessing the vulnerability of national food security to international food price shocks: A new index

Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available.

The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, February 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

The importance and determinants of purchases in rural food consumption in Africa: implications for food security strategies

We analyze rural households’ purchases of food (cereals and non-cereals) in Sub-Saharan Africa using nationally representative data with 65,000 observations covering 7 countries over a decade. We distinguish between three strata of countries: lower stratum in income and urbanization, middle stratum, and upper stratum. The paper breaks ground by the breadth and time length of the sample. We find that purchases form the majority of rural food consumption whether in favorable or unfavorable agroecological zones and over country and income strata and for most food products. Rural nonfarm employment (as a cash source) plays an important role in household food purchases across all study countries and food products. Policy implications include the importance of food purchase markets and supply chains to and in rural areas as well as nonfarm employment.

Pakistan: A cost-benefit analysis of crop rotation practice in rainfed areas

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges confronting our global system today. The scientific community has clearly established that global temperatures are rising and the consequences of climate change may swiftly transition from an environmental risk to an economic threat. Agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in weather and climatic condition. Over 60% of the yield variability is chalked up to to climate change; significantly affecting food production and farmer income. Changes in climate affect the onset and duration of crop growing cycle, and the extent and duration of heat and water stress impact agriculture production. Moreover, it may trigger pest and disease outbreaks causing significant production losses. Small-scale farmers in rain-fed areas of Pakistan face the severe susceptibility to the challenges brought about by climate change. This vulnerability stems from their heavy dependence on traditional farming methods and their limited ability to adapt, exacerbated by their limited access to advanced technologies and high levels of poverty. Worldwide, crop yields from rainfed farming are approximately 50 percent less than those achieved through irrigated methods. In the absence of adaptation measures to cope with climate change, a potential decline of around 50 percent in rain-fed agricultural yields could potentially occur within the next 30-35 years. Promoting climate smart agricultural practices appears to be a dependable strategy for addressing risks posed by climate change.

Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises

A convergence of several risk drivers creates the compound crises we see across the globe today. At the same time, the global humanitarian community and national institutions in affected countries are increasingly resource constrained. In this context, existing financing mechanisms should be evaluated for their potential to create synergies between social protection, peace, and inclusion objectives on the one hand and climate resilience outcomes on the other. The existing international architecture of climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and financing holds, in principle, the potential to address not only its main purpose of climate action, but also to contribute to development outcomes and address multiple risk drivers. Examples of this exist, but for these mutual benefits to emerge, and for climate finance to contribute more significantly to crises prevention, the agendas must become more aligned. Aligning several factors may enable coherence: i) Timeframes, from short-term response to multi-year programming; ii) Planning and targeting, moving towards conflict-sensitive area-based approaches and universal access to services; iii) Institutional arrangements and partnerships, coordinated national planning and jointly implemented local action.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Fertilizer subsidies in Malawi: From past to present

Malawi has been at the center of the debate on agricultural input subsidies in Africa ever since it significantly expanded its fertilizer subsidy program about two decades ago. When it did so, Malawi was a trailblazer, receiving international attention for seemingly leveraging the subsidy program to move the country from a situation characterized by food deficits and widespread hunger to crop production surpluses. In this paper we trace the history of Malawi’s subsidy program over the past 70 years, describing how the country arrived at that watershed moment earlier this century and how the subsidy program has developed since. We show how donor support for the program has wavered and how external pressure to remove the subsidy has repeatedly been unsuccessful. We also demonstrate how over the years the program’s total fiscal burden has fluctuated significantly. However, we find that since the expansion of the subsidy program in 2004, the fiscal costs of the program have shown little correlation with the maize harvest that same agricultural season. We show that the subsidy program has succeeded in raising awareness about the value of the fertilizer for increased crop productivity. However, despite its continued prominence in the country’s agricultural policy, most Malawian smallholder do not manage to grow sufficient maize to feed their households throughout the year, and every year millions depend on food assistance during the worst months of the lean season.