Discussion Papers

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Farmer groups as ICT Hubs: Findings from a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Malawi

Many rural producer groups face poor management practices, low productivity, and weak market linkages. An information and communication technology (ICT)-based intervention bundle was provided to producer groups to transform them into ICT hubs, where members learn about and adopt improved management practices and increase their productivity and incomes. The intervention bundle includes phone messages and videos, promotion of the call center/hotline, and facilitation of radio listening clubs and collective marketing. The study, a cluster-randomized controlled trial, randomly assigned 59 groups into treatment groups and 59 into control groups. After 18 months of interventions, results show positive but small impact on crop sales (USD65 per household) and no impact on productivity. The income effect was mainly from Kasungu and Nkhota-kota, which experienced increased production and sales of rice, soybean, and groundnut and received higher prices due to collective marketing. Farmers in Kasungu and Nkhota-kota improved a few agricultural management practices, while farmers in other districts did not improve their management practices. Results show more farmers accessing phone messaging on agriculture and markets, greater awareness and use of the call center, more listening groups established, and more farmers—especially women—joining these groups. Nevertheless, coverage and uptake remain very low, which are likely reasons for the limited impact.

Double-booked: Effects of overlap between school and farming calendars on education and child labor

Overlap between school and farming calendars—pervasive in agrarian settings—constrains children’s time for both activities, potentially forcing trade-offs between schooling and child labor. Using shift-share estimation, I study an exogenous shift to overlap between school and crop calendars in Malawi, weighted and aggregated by communities’ pre-policy crop shares, matched to panel data on school-aged children. From pre- to post-policy, a five-day (i.e., one school-week) increase in overlap during peak farming periods decreases children’s school advancement by 0.14 grades—one lost grade for every seven children—while only resulting in 3.9 percent fewer children working on the household-farm. Policy simulations show how adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods can be an effective strategy to increase school participation.

Gender, deliberation, and natural resource governance: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Initiatives to combat climate change often strive to include women’s voices, but there is limited evidence on how this feature influences program design or its benefits for women. We examine the causal effect of women’s representation in climate-related deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in rural Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment that randomly varies the gender composition of six-member groups asked to privately vote, deliberate, then privately vote again on their preferred policy to combat local over-harvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group. This result cannot be explained by changes in participants’ talk time. Rather, women’s presence changes the content of deliberations towards topics on which women tend to have greater expertise. Our work suggests that including women in decision-making can shift deliberative processes in ways that amplify women’s voices.

Development of a Women’s Empowerment metric for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WE-WASH)

There is a growing focus on gender-sensitive approaches and women’s empowerment in the water, sanitation, and hygiene sectors. At the same time, there is a lack of metrics to measure women’s empowerment in the WASH sector. Such metrics are important for understanding the types of programmatic interventions that are most needed for addressing women’s empowerment, as well as for assessing their impacts on women’s empowerment. In this report, we describe the development of a Women’s Empowerment metrics for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WE-WASH). We collected data from individual women and men in 812 households in Malawi and 826 households in Nepal. Using the data, we develop 14 indicators and establish cutoff thresholds (i.e., whether the individual is empowered) in the areas of intrinsic, instrumental, and collective agency in WASH; instrumental and intrinsic agency in menstrual hygiene management; and the empowerment environment (or resources for empowerment). In each country, we observe differences in empowerment levels between women and men, that favor men on most outcomes. Notably, in both countries, we find that women are much less likely than men to contribute to WASH infrastructure decisions, and most women are spending an undue amount of time contributing to WASH-related labor. In Nepal especially, agency related to menstrual hygiene management is also a substantial area of disempowerment for women.

What are you talking about? Applying cognitive interviewing to improve survey questions on women’s economic empowerment for market inclusion

Monitoring progress toward women’s empowerment requires tools that reflect its underlying concepts. Cognitive interviewing is a qualitative approach for identifying sources of error in how respondents respond to survey items. This study identifies cognitive errors in survey modules included in the project level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI) in Benin and Malawi. Comprehension, retrieval, judgment, and response errors were all found to different degrees in the nine modules comprising the survey instrument. There are variations in findings by country context and, to a lesser extent, gender. The findings of this study informed revisions to the pro-WEAI+MI survey instrument and offer insights into how best to design survey modules used for monitoring progress toward gender equality in agricultural value chains and development efforts.

Measuring empowerment across the value chain: The evolution of the project-level Women’s Empowerment Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI)

Many development agencies design and implement interventions that aim to reach, benefit, and empower rural women across the value chain in activities ranging from production, to processing, to marketing. Determining whether and how such interventions empower women, as well as the constraints faced by different value chain actors, requires quantitative and qualitative tools. We describe how we adapted the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (pro-WEAI), a mixed-methods tool for studying empowerment in development projects, to include aspects of agency relevant for multiple types of value chain actors. The resulting pro-WEAI for market inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI) includes quantitative and qualitative instruments developed over the course of four studies. Studies in the Philippines (2017), Bangladesh (2017), and Malawi (2019) were intended to diagnose areas of disempowerment to inform programming, whereas the Benin (2019) study was an impact assessment of an agricultural training program. The pro-WEAI+MI includes all indicators included in pro-WEAI, plus a dashboard of complementary indicators and recommended qualitative instruments. These tools investigate the empowerment of women in different value chains and nodes and identify barriers to market access and inclusion that may restrict empowerment for different value chain actors. Our findings highlight three lessons. First, the sampling strategy needs to be designed to capture the key actors in a value chain. Second, the market inclusion indicators cannot stand alone; they must be interpreted alongside the core pro-WEAI indicators. Third, not all market inclusion indicators will be relevant for all value chains and contexts. Users should research the experiences of women and men in the target value chains in the context of the programto select priority market inclusion indicators.

Do agricultural projects help smallholders transition to better livelihood strategies?

Agricultural projects typically aim to promote the uptake of project components amongst targeted farm populations to improve their on-farm productivity within a “theory of change” that leads to improvements in their welfare. While this approach can be an important first step towards improving smallholder livelihoods, it ignores alternative and often superior livelihood options that might arise within the rural transformation process. These options can be particularly important for agricultural value chain projects that generate new market opportunities and secondary off-farm income and employment growth within the rural nonfarm economy. We argue that the design of smallholder projects implemented within regions already undergoing a dynamic transformation and/or on projects which have significant value chain components, should be broadened to assist smallholders make successful transitions to their best livelihood options. For such projects, M&E should also track livelihood transitions as well as the usual assessments of progress made, the achievement of expected goals, and the identification of bottlenecks in implementation. To help operationalize such an approach, we propose a typology of smallholder livelihood strategies that can track transitions over time and illustrate its use with an IFAD funded agricultural value chain project in Malawi. Using econometric methods and available household panel data, we find that the project helped some smallholders transition out of subsistence farming to market farming with a corresponding increase in their per capita incomes. The project also helped some households transition to, or remain with, an off-farm income diversification strategy with favorable per capita income outcomes. This may reflect new opportunities that arose as spillover benefits from the project along local agricultural value chains and within the rural nonfarm economy more broadly. We conclude with some lessons for the design, monitoring and evaluation of future agricultural projects.

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA, but no similar evidence in SSA.

Mismeasurement and efficiency estimates: Evidence from smallholder survey data in Africa

Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterized by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterization relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We theoretically show that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders’ technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85 percent for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders’ actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artifact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders’ production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders’ production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies.

Relative roles and limits of extension approaches in promoting sustainable agricultural management practices: Analysis of nationally representative panel data from Malawi

Low-cost and sustainable agricultural management practices are being promoted in many countries but continue to face low adoption among farmers. We tracked the awareness and adoption among farmers of a number of practices―soil cover, minimum tillage, crop rotation, intercropping, crop diversification, crop residue incorporation, pit planting, water harvesting, and organic fertilizer―in two rounds of a nationally representative rural household survey in Malawi. Survey data and focus group discussions are used to understand the factors explaining the variations in farmers’ awareness and adoption of these practices. Results show a strong positive effect of extension services receipt on farmers’ awareness of these practices but no effect on farmers’ adoption of most of the practices being promoted, except for crop residue incorporation and organic fertilizer use. Receipt of input subsidy does not influence the adoption of these practices. Both survey data and focus group discussions highlight the need for intensive and iterative engagement between service providers and farmers to fully communicate, learn, and adapt to these management practices.

Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from Malawi

Recall biases in retrospective survey data are widely considered to be pervasive and have important implications for effective agricultural research. In this paper, we leverage the survey design literature and test three strategies to attenuate mental anchoring in retrospective data collection: question order effects, retrieval cues, and aggregate (community) anchoring. We embed a survey design experiment in a longitudinal survey of smallholder farmers in Malawi and focus on anchoring bias in maize production and happiness exploiting differences between recalled and concurrent responses. We find that asking for retrospective data before concurrent data reduces recall bias by approximately 34% for maize production, a meaningful improvement with no increase in survey data collection costs. Retrieval cues are less successful in reducing the bias for maize reports and involve more data collection time, while community anchors can exacerbate the bias. Reversing the order of questions and retrieval cues do not help to ease the bias for happiness reports.

Explaining the gender gap in profits among entrepreneurs in Malawi

In this paper, we utilize decomposition methods to document the extent and drivers of the performance gap in Malawi between firms with a female owner and firms with a male owner. We find that, on average, male-owned businesses in Malawi earn profits more than double (120%) those of female-owned businesses. We use Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder (KOB) mean-decomposition techniques and recentered influence function (RIF) regressions applied along the earnings distribution, coupled with data from a novel multi-topic household survey rich in details about entrepreneurship, to identify what proportion of the gender gap in business profits can be attributed to: (i) differences in average characteristics of profit-generating factors (composition effect) and (ii) gender differences in the returns to these factors (structure effect). We find that 59.8% of the mean gender gap is explained by gender differences in the levels of observable attributes, with the remaining 40.2% attributable to the lower returns to observable attributes obtained by female owners, i.e., female structural disadvantage. The composition effect is primarily driven by female owners’ role as the primary caregiver in most households and a lack of capital. The female structural disadvantage can largely be attributed to female owners’ heightened perception of sexual hostility in the work environment and non-cognitive skills related to entrepreneurship (perseverance in challenging tasks and environments, optimism, and passion for work). When looking along the distribution, capital stock appears to be a primary driver of the composition effect except in the bottom quintile of firms. In contrast, caregiving responsibilities are a driver of the composition effect in the bottom three quintiles only. Differences in the returns to capital appear to be a very significant driver of the female structural disadvantage in the bottom quintile.

It takes two: Women’s empowerment in agricultural value chains in Malawi

Inclusive agricultural value chains (VCs) are potential drivers for poverty reduction, food security, and women’s empowerment. This report assesses the implementation of the Agricultural Technical and Vocational Education Training for Women Program (ATVET4Women) that aims to support women with vocational training and market linkages in priority agricultural value chains. This report focuses on Malawi, one of the six pilot countries of the ATVET4Women; and focuses on vegetable value chains in which some non-formal training sessions have been conducted as of October 2019. This report presents (1) program experience of stakeholders; (2) evidence of program benefits and challenges among ATVET4Women non-formal training graduates; and (3) baseline data on value chain and empowerment indicators, using a pilot household survey-based instrument for measuring women’s empowerment in agricultural value chains (pro-WEAI for market inclusion) and supplementary qualitative research. Results show graduates’ satisfaction and appreciation of the training provided, and some graduates reported having access to more lucrative markets as a result of the training. However, positive changes in several outcome indicators were reported by only some graduates: 30 percent of graduates reported increased production and sales. There is no significant difference in the reported changes and levels of vegetable production and income between graduates and non-graduates. Qualitative findings suggest that constraints to accessing agricultural inputs and funds to upgrade their production may be why there are no measured differences. Results on empowerment status reveal that 73 percent of women and 85 percent of men in the sample are empowered, and 73 percent of the sample households achieved gender parity. The main contributor of disempowerment among women and men is lack of work balance and autonomy in income. Fewer women achieved adequacy in work balance than men. Adequacies in attitudes about domestic violence, respect among household members, input in productive decisions, and asset ownership are generally high for both women and men, but significantly lower for women. While this report is mainly descriptive and further analysis is ongoing, it offers some lessons and practical implications for improving ATVET4Women program implementation and its outcomes on women’s market access, incomes, and empowerment.

Exploring gendered experiences of time-use agency in Benin, Malawi, and Nigeria as a new concept to measure women’s empowerment

Time use, or how women and men allocate their time, is an important aspect of empowerment. To build on this area of study, we propose and explore the concept of time-use agency in this paper, which shifts the focus from the amount of time spent on activities to the strategic choices that are made regarding how to allocate time. We draw on 92 interviews from qualitative studies in Benin, Malawi, and Nigeria to explore across contexts the salience of time-use agency as a component of women’s empowerment. Our results indicate that time-use agency is salient among both women and men and dictates how women and men are able to make and act upon strategic decisions related how they allocate their time. Our findings suggest that time-use agency is important for fully understanding empowerment with respect to time use. Importantly, this study highlights the gendered dynamics and barriers women face in exercising their time-use agency. These barriers are tied to and conditioned by social norms dictating how women should spend their time. Women often make tradeoffs throughout any given day with respect to their time, balancing their expected priorities with the barriers or limitations they face in being able to spend any additional time on tasks or activities that further their own strategic goals. Additionally, these results on time-use agency echo similar themes in the literature on gendered divisions of labor, time poverty, and decision-making, but also add new subtleties to this work. For example, we find that women can easily adjust their schedules but must carefully navigate relationships with husbands to be able to attend trainings or take on new income generating activities, results that align with previous findings that women consistently have higher involvement in small decisions compared to large ones. While these themes have been observed previously in studies of women’s empowerment, to our knowledge, our study is the first to connect them to time use and time-use agency. Our study contributes the conceptualization of time-use agency, and the identification of themes relevant to time-use agency, through the emic perspectives of women and men across three diverse settings in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a concept, time-use agency goes beyond measuring time use to understand the gendered dynamics around controlling one’s time use to advance their own strategic goals and highlights any barriers one faces in doing so. It is a particularly relevant concept for interventions that aim to increase (or at least, not diminish) women’s empowerment by promoting women’s involvement in remunerated activities. Although time-use agency, as a concept, has yet to be addressed in women’s empowerment literature. A next step in this area of inquiry is to develop survey indicators on time-use agency, which may reduce bias and cognitively burden compared to existing time use surveys.

Improving data quality for the CAADP biennial review: a partnership initiative piloted in five countries

This paper presents results of a data partnership framework for strengthening evidence-based planning and implementation that was initiated in 2019 in five selected African countries (Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal, and Togo) during the second round of the CAADP biennial review (BR) process. It analyzes the effect of the activities conducted on the data reporting rate and the quality of data reported in the five pilot countries, compared with what was achieved in like-pilot countries. The like-pilot countries are non-pilot countries that have characteristics like the pilot countries at the baseline which affect selection into the pilot or the data reporting and quality outcomes. Different methods (standard deviations, propensity score matching, and two-stage weighted regression) are used to identify the like-pilot countries, and a difference-in-difference method is used to estimate the effect of the pilot activities on the outcomes.

The capacity-strengthening activities focused on working with the country Biennial Review (BR) team to: assess the inaugural or 2018 BR process and identify the data gaps; constitute and train members of data clusters to compile and check the data for the 2020 BR; and then validate and submit the data. The findings show that the activities helped the pilot countries to improve their performance in the data reporting rate and the quality of data reported in the 2020 BR. The largest improvement is observed in Togo and Senegal, followed by Kenya and Malawi, and then Mozambique.

The average increase in the data reporting rate between 2018 and 2020 BRs for the pilot countries is greater than the average progress made in the like-pilot countries by about 6 to 9 % pts. This derives mostly from improvements in the data reporting rate for the indicators under theme 3 on ending hunger. Regarding the quality of data reported (measured as the percent of the data reported that have issues) too, the pilot countries on average performed better than the like-pilot countries, especially with respect to the data reported under themes 2 on investment in agriculture and 3 on ending hunger. But most of the estimated differences have low or no statistical significance. Implications for sustaining the progress made in the pilot countries, as well as for extending the activities to other countries, for the next rounds of the BR are discussed.

The role of interactive radio programming in advancing women’s empowerment and crop and dietary diversity: Mixed methods evidence from Malawi

The study assesses the effect of interactive radio programming on women’s empowerment and agricultural development, employing nationally representative household panel data and qualitative interviews in Malawi. Four major findings can be highlighted. First, radio programming is the preferred source of agricultural and nutrition advice among many subpopulations: younger women and men used radio more than other sources for their agricultural information needs, while younger and older men used radio more than other sources for nutrition education. Second, results show a positive impact of radio programming on technology awareness but a limited impact on actual adoption of most agricultural practices being promoted, except crop residue incorporation. Third, results show positive impacts on dietary diversity and adoption of other nutrition practices among the rural population. Fourth, results show a strong association between access to interactive radio programming and women’s and men’s empowerment scores. The association is greater for women’s empowerment and younger men’s empowerment, the latter being the most disempowered group in the sample.

Dynamics in agricultural extension services provision in Malawi: Insights from two rounds of household and community panel surveys

The Government of Malawi is in the process of developing its National Agricultural Extension Strategy. Two rounds of national household and community surveys (2016, 2018), coupled with in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, were implemented to provide research evidence supporting the Strategy’s development. This paper summarizes emerging trends from these surveys and monitors progress in extension services provision, players and actors in extension services provision, and evidence on the coverage and effectiveness of extension approaches. Positive trends include (1) improvements in the percentage of men and women farmers accessing extension services; (2) consistently high ratings in the perceived quality of extension services; (3) more diversity in extension messages, including more information regarding market access and nutrition; (4) greater use of cost-effective tools, such as radio programming and community or group meetings, as sources of agricultural information; and (5) greater crop diversification, although diversification outside of agriculture remains low. Four areas remain weak and need further improvements. First, information sharing among farmers, friends, and neighbors is frequent, and the coverage of those officially trained “lead farmers” (those trained specifically to promote technologies to other farmers) remains low, with only 7 percent of households reporting getting relevant advice from them. Second, while there are more “model villages” and “village agricultural committees” present, we see decreasing participation and ratings for these. Third, we observe greater awareness of promoted technologies, including conservation agriculture, pit planting, and sustainable land practices, but adoption remains very low. Fourth, we observe greater crop diversification, but farm productivity and commercialization remain low. Although we have investigated many dimensions and factors in this paper, there remain challenges and puzzles that could be further addressed in future research. These include constraints on the adoption of minimal expensive inputs and low-cost management practices, constraints on the role of intensive training and labor, and understanding the drivers and factors affecting commercialization and diversification.

Modeling the effectiveness of the lead farmer approach in agricultural extension service provision: Nationally representative panel data analysis in Malawi

The lead farmer (LF) approach has been implemented and heavily promoted nationwide in Malawi since 2009 to support government extension workers and accelerate technology dissemination. Earlier reports have shown that donor-funded projects in Malawi widely adopted the LF approach, indicating positive roles and contributions of LFs. However, national data show persistently low rates of adoption of management practices being promoted by the LFs, prompting this study to look closely at the nationwide implementation and effectiveness of the LF approach. Specifically, we model the effects of farmers’ interaction with and exposure to LFs and farmers’ access to LFs’ advice on farmers’ awareness of and adoption of several promoted technologies and management practices. We use data from 531 randomly selected LFs linked to panel data from 2,800 farming households and, using correlated random effects, model the effectiveness of the LF approach on technology awareness and adoption. This is complemented by 55 focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with agricultural extension development officers (AEDOs) and service providers. Our results point to two major conclusions. First, LFs support and assist AEDOs in their work, especially in organizing community meetings and farm demonstrations, and are also an important bridge between farmers and AEDOs. But LFs complement AEDOs’ work rather than substitute for it. In communities without strong AEDOs and community leaders to work with and monitor them, LFs were not active or performed at a substandard level. Second, results show limited coverage and weak implementation and effectiveness of the LF approach at the national level. Only 13 percent of farmers reported receiving agricultural advice from an LF in the last two years, and only 20 percent reported having interacted with an LF. Our econometric models also consistently show neither the farmers’ exposure or interaction with LFs nor farmers’ access to LFs’ advice had an effect on awareness of and adoption of the major agricultural management practices being promoted. When heterogeneity and types of LFs are unpacked, results show that quality of LFs, adoption behavior of LFs, and regular training of LFs have strong and consistent effect on the awareness and adoption of most agricultural practices promoted.

Adding a nutrition behavior change communication component to an early childhood development intervention in Malawi: A cluster randomized trial

The Nutrition Embedded Evaluation Program Impact Evaluation (NEEP-IE) cluster randomized control trial (CRCT) aimed to assess the effectiveness of implementing an agriculture and nutritional intervention through preschools, known as community-based child care centres (CBCCs) in Malawi (6). This included; activities to promote nutritious food production and consumption, promotion of optimal feeding and caring practices and engagement with parents in pre-school meal planning and preparation. The NEEP-IE trial has demonstrated that CBCCs can be an effective platform to scale-up an integrated agriculture and nutrition intervention, and improve food production diversity, maternal knowledge, nutrition practices at household level and diets of pre-schoolers and their younger siblings, as well as improve linear growth in younger siblings aged 6-24m (7). This study presents the impact results of the NEEP-IE trial focusing on child development outcomes of pre-school children during a 12m intervention period.

A critical review of Malawi’s Special Crops Act and Agriculture (General Purposes) Act

This report is a critical review of two of the principal agricultural laws in Malawi, the Special Crops Act and the Agriculture (General Purposes) Act. Both are frequently used to justify interventions by government in agricultural marketing and trade activities. The review is to assess whether this legislation is effective in promoting the goals of the country around agricultural commercialization, and if not, to provide recommendations for revisions to the laws. As a secondary task, the review considers whether either law could be used as an appropriate legal framework for contract farming regulation and oversight. The review was based on a thorough desk review of the legislation and interviews with over 230 key informants involved in agricultural production, marketing, and trade. The interviews focused on the laws and how their application by government has affected the commercial activities of the informants for better or for worse.

The role of food systems and value chains to improve diets in low income settings: Diagnostics to support intervention design in Malawi

In this paper, we apply a mixed-method multisectoral diagnostic to examine potential interventions in food systems to improve diets of rural smallholder farmers in Malawi. We examine the entry points for interventions involving public and nonprofit (including both government and development partners) and private-sector perspectives. In addition, we explore the methodological and theoretical requirements for undertaking this type of multisectoral analysis.

Agriculture support services in Malawi: Direct effects, complementarities, and time dynamics

Using a randomized controlled trial, we examine the impacts of cash and input transfers, and a cross-randomized program of intensive agricultural extension over two years. We find large effects on the total value of agricultural production from the transfers (both cash and inputs) in both years. Gains to production are driven by an increase in resources allocated to inputs, specifically pesticides (in the first year) and casual labor (both years). We see no direct evidence that intensive extension is more effective than lead farmer extension support after one year. However, we do find evidence of production gains attributable to intensive extension in the subsequent year, highlighting important time dynamics. In the first year, farmers experience the best outcomes when they receive both transfers and extension, though that pattern is less clear in year 2.

Is there a role for agricultural committees and stakeholder panels in improving information and accountability in extension service provision: Evidence from Malawi

This paper looks at village agriculture committees, model villages, and stakeholder panels at various levels as participatory and decentralized structures for improving demand articulation and accountability in agricultural extension service provision in Malawi. It uses various datasets including nationally representative household and community surveys, a survey of service providers, a survey of representatives from the various structures, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. It employs various estimation methods including matching techniques, matching plus regression adjustments, and an instrumental variables approach.

Assessment of the 2016/17 Food Insecurity Response Programme in Malawi

Following poor harvests in the 2015/16 cropping season in Malawi, vulnerability assessments found that nearly 6.7 million people, primarily in the Southern and Central regions, were likely to suffer from food insecurity before the next harvest. The government of Malawi and its development partners designed the 2016/17 Food Insecurity Response Programme (FIRP) in Malawi to meet the food needs of many of the households affected, mobilizing approximately USD 265 million in resources to do so. In the wake of this intervention, a team led by the International Food Policy Research Institute was contracted to assess the quality of this humanitarian response along four primary dimension: Assess the quality of the national food security assessments which began the response; Investigate the accuracy of the geographical and beneficiary targeting within selected areas; conduct an operational assessment of the humanitarian response design and implementation; and Assess overall programme and draw technical, market, and methodological implications for the design of future humanitarian responses and their contribution to resilience building. This Discussion Paper provides considerable detail on which facets of the implementation of FIRP were successful and where implementation fell short in addressing the needs of the affected population, in ensuring that Malawi was better prepared for future food crises, and in laying a foundation for improved resilience in the face of such shocks for both the affected households and Malawi as a whole. The 2016/17 FIRP was largely successful in preventing disaster and saving lives and livelihoods. However, the assessment of the design and implementation of the FIRP highlighted the high level of dependency of the Malawi government on its development partners for resources to undertake such humanitarian responses and the significant deficiencies in the technical and institutional capacity of the institutions responsible for responding. Unless the cycle of food insecurity is broken and the resilience of Malawian food systems increased, the government of Malawi and its development partners will continue to depend on FIRP-type interventions to save people’s lives and protect them from food insecurity and hunger.

Measuring postharvest losses at the farm level in Malawi

Reducing food loss and waste are important policy objectives prominently featured in the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals. To optimally design interventions targeted at reducing losses, it is important to know where losses are concentrated between the farm and fork. This paper measures farmlevel postharvest losses for three main crops—maize, soy, and groundnuts—among 1,200 households in Malawi. Farmers answered a detailed questionnaire designed to learn about losses during harvest and transport, processing, and storage and which measures both total losses and reductions in crop quality. The findings indicate that fewer than half of households report suffering losses conditional on growing each crop. In addition, conditional on losses occurring, the loss averages between 5 and 12 percent of the farmer’s total harvest. Compared to nationally representative data that measure losses using a single survey question, this study documents a far greater percentage of farmers experiencing losses, though the unconditional proportion lost is similar. We find that losses are concentrated in harvest and processing activities for groundnuts and maize; for soy, they are highest during processing. Existing interventions have primarily targeted storage activities; however, these results suggest that targeting other activities may be worthwhile.

Does providing agricultural and nutrition information to both men and women improve household food security? Evidence from Malawi

The International Food Policy Research Institute is leading a three-year research program to assess the state of agricultural extension and advisory services provision in Malawi in order to inform the national extension policy review and reformation of government and donor processes and programming. This research program includes a series of studies undertaken in response to a request by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development to look closely at the state of extension services provision with the intent to further strengthen the contribution of these services to food security, economic growth, and the achievement of sustainable development goals. In this paper, we examine the role of gender in various pathways to food security in Malawi, emphasizing improved access to agriculture and nutrition information along these pathways and considering the implications of gender targeting for agriculture and nutrition extension services. We propose a gendered typology of households: those with both male and female adults, those with only adult males, and those with only adult females. We take a mixed-methods approach of sequential quantitative-qualitative data collection, consisting of focus group discussions in eight districts and nationally representative household and community surveys. The results show that food insecurity is highest in male-only households. In dual-adult households, in which women are frequently tasked with attending training and meetings but have little power to implement lessons, joint access to information is a more powerful driver of food security than women’s access.

Limited attention and information loss in the lab-to-farm knowledge chain: The case of Malawian agricultural extension programs

The International Food Policy Research Institute is leading a three-year research program to assess the state of agricultural extension and advisory services provision in Malawi in order to inform the national extension policy review and reformation of government and donor processes and programming. This research program includes a series of studies undertaken in response to a request by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development to look closely at the state of extension services provision with the intent to further strengthen the contribution of these services to food security, economic growth, and the achievement of sustainable development goals. In this paper, we assess the flow of technical advice along the knowledge chain from scientists to farmers to identify the challenges in information provision. The advancement of social network literature has fostered the lead or contact farmer modality or farmer-to-farmer approach of information transmission. However, there is limited evidence regarding the information efficiency of this modality, and the reasons of the potential information loss. In this article, we assess information efficiency along the knowledge transmission chain from researchers to agricultural extension agents (EAs) to lead farmers (LFs) to other farmers. By asking the same set of questions about a fairly well known technology, pit planting, we construct a measure of knowledge at each node of the knowledge transmission chain. Descriptive evidence shows that the majority of information loss happens at the EA-to-LF link, and that the loss is potentially caused by limited attention of both EAs and LFs to all important details of the technology. With more evidence about the importance of knowledge for technology adoption, we suggest that EAs emphasize all crucial dimensions of an agricultural technique during demonstrations and visits in order to reduce information loss.

Capacity and accountability in the Agricultural Extension System in Malawi: Insights from a survey of service providers in 15 districts

This report summarizes the data collected from a survey of government and nongovernment extension service providers (GSPs and non-GSPs, respectively) in 15 sample districts in Malawi. Together with the recently published report that looks at farmers’ perspective (Ragasa and Niu 2017), this report is aimed for use by various stakeholders in Malawi, especially in the review of the national extension policy and development of an extension strategy, and in the implementation and monitoring of extension activities under the National Agriculture Policy.

Micronutrient policy process in Malawi

Micronutrient deficiencies are common across the developing world and have major effects on the health outcomes of its population. Although this is well understood, many countries find it difficult to bring about policy change in this regard. This paper uses micronutrient policies designed and implemented in Malawi as a case study to shed light on the barriers and gaps faced by developing countries for similar programs and policies. To understand the drivers of policy change, this paper uses the kaleidoscope model to trace the policy processes of three major micronutrients—iodine, vitamin A, and iron. Using a select set of policy process tools, as well as field interviews with key informants who were part of Malawi’s micronutrient policy process, the authors test a set of hypotheses on 16 variables that drive policy change in the micronutrient policy sphere. Results indicate that much of the agenda setting for micronutrient policies and programs was triggered by external events that focused on the elimination of micronutrient deficiencies as part of the global development agenda. These events include the International Conference on Nutrition, the Millennium Development Goals, and, more recently, Scaling up Nutrition. The design of micronutrient policies and program interventions in Malawi was adopted by locally mandated ministries and institutions, in collaboration with development partners who provided both financial and technical support at the design stage. The adoption of micronutrient policies and intervention programs was driven primarily by external funding, particularly through supplementation programs related to vitamin A and iron. Adoption of fortification standards for vitamin A has been going on for more than a decade due to continuous resistance from the private sector, which faces additional costs and needs greater technical expertise. The biofortification method of micronutrient interventions for iron and vitamin A is externally driven and relatively new in Malawi. Although this method is widely accepted by policy makers, no concrete strategy has been developed for its design, adoption, and implementation. Further, supplementation and fortification programs continue to face implementation challenges due to poor physical infrastructure and monitoring systems. However, the national institutional architecture required for agenda setting, design, adoption, implementation, evaluation, and review to address micronutrient deficiencies is in place in Malawi. The system needs continued support from development partners for effective functioning at all levels. The use of various tools for the policy change part of the kaleidoscope model indicate that policy change is a dynamic process; over time, changes in the nature and composition of the members of policy and institutional architecture can result in different policy outcomes. The Malawi case study demonstrates two things. First, local leadership is crucial in keeping micronutrient deficiencies on the policy-making agenda, and second, it matters where coordinating power is placed in the policy hierarchy. This paper finds that, even with policy champions, adopted policies will face implementation challenges unless they are supported with adequate resources and are systematically followed through to final execution and delivery.

A farm-level perspective of the policy challenges for export diversification in Malawi: Example of the oilseeds and maize sectors

The primary goal of the study is to investigate the potential to expand oilseeds, specifically soybeans,as an alternative commercialcrop to tobacco among Malawian farmers. A principal motivation for undertaking the study at the microeconomic level is to determine, in a theoretically consistent fashion, the type of policy and economic environment under which farmers begin to shift more of their scarce resources to oilseed production.The study aims to provide recommendations to a growing demand among policy makers and development partners for a greater diversification of exports and crop production systems of the majority smallholder farmers in Malawi. Using representative farm models, the study examinesthe potential for expanding production of soybeans among typical smallholder farming systems in Malawi. The results will help guide future policies and investments targeted at promoting greater crop diversification and incomes, in order to reduce poverty and malnutrition in Malawi. Given the amount of labor and land resources allocated to maize production for food security purposes, we also consider the policy challenges that emerge for crop diversification as a result

Understanding compliance in programs promoting conservation agriculture: Modeling a case study in Malawi

Land degradation and soil erosion have emerged as serious challenges to smallholder farmers throughout southern Africa. To combat these challenges, conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable package of agricultural practices. Despite the many potential benefits of CA, however, adoption remains low. Yet relatively little is known about the decision-making process in choosing to adopt CA. This article attempts to fill this important knowledge gap by studying CA adoption in southern Malawi. Unlike what is implicitly assumed when these packages of practices are introduced, farmers view adoption as a series of independent decisions rather than a single decision. Yet the adoption decisions are not wholly independent. We find strong evidence of interrelated decisions, particularly among mulching crop residues and practicing zero tillage, suggesting that mulching residues and intercropping or rotating with legumes introduces a multiplier effect on the adoption of zero tillage.

Leveling the field for biofuels: Comparing the economic and environmental impacts of biofuel and other export crops in Malawi

Biofuel production can have conflicting impacts on economic growth, food and energy security, and natural resources. Understanding these trade-offs is crucial for designing policies that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This is particularly true in low-income countries, where the need to promote both energy and food security is most pressing. To this end, we develop an integrated modeling framework to simultaneously assess the economic and environmental impacts of producing biofuels in Malawi. We extend earlier studies by incorporating the effects of land use change on crop water use, and the opportunity costs of using scarce agricultural resources for biofuels rather than other export crops. We find that biofuel production is generally pro-poor and reduces food insecurity by raising household incomes. Irrigated outgrower schemes rather than estate farms lead to better economic outcomes, fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and similar crop water requirements. Nevertheless, Malawi must reduce emissions from its ethanol plants in order to access European markets. We also find that the economic and environmental impacts of biofuels are preferable to those of tobacco or soybeans. The European Union has raised the standards expected of biofuel producers, but it should “level the playing field” by applying similar standards to other export crops from developing countries.

The impact of agricultural extension services in the context of a heavily subsidized input system: The case of Malawi

This paper aims to test this hypothesis and to contribute to better understanding of strategies to revitalize the agricultural extension system in Malawi. Specifically, it examines the interplay between the fertilizer subsidy and access to extension services, and their impact on farm productivity and food security in Malawi. Results show that the fertilizer subsidy has inconsistent impact on farm productivity and food security; at the same time, access to agricultural advice was consistently insignificant in explaining farm productivity and food security. Further analysis, however, shows that when access to extension services is unpacked to include indicators of usefulness and farmers’ satisfaction, these indicators were statistically significant. Households who reported that they received very useful agricultural advice had greater productivity and greater food security than those who reported receiving advice that they considered not useful. This result implies the need to ensure the provision of relevant and useful agricultural advice to increase the likelihood of achieving agricultural development outcomes

The food-energy-water security nexus: Definitions, policies, and methods in an application to Malawi and Mozambique

This study summarizes the concept of the food-energy-water security nexus (FEW nexus). The aim is to create awareness about the importance of the nexus and to enable stakeholders to consider interconnections between the sectors in their work. The FEW nexus is discussed in the context of Africa south of the Sahara (SSA)—using Malawi and Mozambique as case studies. Even though analyzing food, energy, and water security issues simultaneously is critical given the interconnections, summarizing interventions with the FEW nexus approach in Malawi and Mozambique, we found that there are only a limited number of interventions in place. Additionally, this study reviews macro- and microeconomic models that are able to analyze the FEW nexus. On the macrolevel, especially general equilibrium models are discussed, because they show trade-offs and synergies of nexus interventions at all economic levels. These models can help guide policymakers’ understanding of nexus effects ex ante and convince them to think beyond their respective political departments. On the microlevel, the impact of nexus interventions can be assessed with qualitative and quantitative approaches. There are specific challenges for nexus interventions when it comes to aggregation and planning of the targeting. A secondary data analysis of nexus interventions shows that existing data is not sufficient to conduct research specifically related to the FEW nexus. The results of this study will help research programs to reflect the key questions required to enhance adoption of FEW technologies and inform policymakers as they formulate policies that will exploit the strong synergies of food security, energy, and water investments.

Investigating public financial accounts and coding system in Malawi and measuring agricultural expenditures within the system

This paper is one of the four diagnostic studies initiated to better understand the black box of public expenditure statistics and how it varies across countries. Particularly, this paper analyzes how government expenditures in agriculture are captured in Malawi’s public financial accounts. It is anticipated that by providing a clear exposition of the manner in which public agriculture expenditures are identified and aggregated using the existing coding structure, this paper would facilitate easy understanding of the levels and composition of the public agricultural expenditures. Such an understanding would ultimately be necessary for determining the link between such allocations and their impact on agricultural growth and hence economic growth. The report starts with a brief background on reforms in the public financial accounts starting with the adoption of the structural adjustment in the 1980s. This is followed by an analysis of the budget and expenditure classification and coding system and a description of the public agriculture expenditure in Malawi. The consolidation and aggregation of data are based on the administrative, program, economic, and functional classification. One of the main findings show that overtime reforms to classification and coding system ensured compliance to international standards as provided in the 2001 Government Finance Statistics of International Monetary Fund and better linkages of expenditure items to the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy.

Heterogeneous preferences and the effects of incentives in promoting conservation agriculture in Malawi

Malawi faces significant challenges in meeting its future food security needs because there is little scope for increasing production by simply expanding the area under cultivation. One potential alternative for sustainably intensifying agricultural production is by means of conservation agriculture (CA), which improves soil quality through a suite of farming practices that reduce soil disturbance, increase soil cover via retained crop residues, and increase crop diversification. We use discrete choice experiments to study farmers’ preferences for these different CA practices and assess willingness to adopt CA. Our results indicate that, despite many benefits, some farmers are not willing to adopt CA without receiving subsidies, and current farm-level practices significantly influence willingness to adopt the full CA package. Providing subsidies, however, can create perverse incentives. Subsidies may increase the adoption of intercropping and residue mulching, but adoption of these practices may crowd out adoption of zero tillage, leading to partial compliance. Further, exposure to various risks such as flooding and insect infestations often constrains adoption. Rather than designing subsidies or voucher programs to increase CA adoption, it may be important to tailor insurance policies to address the new risks brought about by CA adoption.

Agricultural policy processes and the youth in Malawi

Evidence exists which shows growing disillusionment with and disinterest in agricultural-based livelihoods among the youth in Africa south of the Sahara. This disillusionment raises concerns for the future of agriculture for the developing world as it can lead to higher rural urban migration, unemployment and lowered agricultural productivity. The engagement of youth in agricultural policy formulation processes is seen as one avenue for motivating youth engagement in agriculture. This research seeks to develop a contextual understanding of the level of engagement of youth in agriculture thus providing evidence which can be used to stimulate youth involvement in the sector. Using a mixed-methods approach, this study analyzes the determinants of the engagement by southern African youth in agricultural policy processes using Malawi as a case study.

Women’s individual and joint property ownership: Effects on household decisionmaking

In this paper, the relationship of women’s individual and joint property ownership and the level of women’s input into household decisionmaking is explored with data from India, Mali, Malawi, and Tanzania. In the three African countries, women with individual landownership have greater input into household decisionmaking than women whose landownership is joint; both have more input than women who are not landowners.

Variable returns to fertilizer use and its relationship to poverty: Experimental and simulation evidence from Malawi

Despite the rise of targeted input subsidy programs in Africa over the last decade, several questions remain as to whether low and variable soil fertility, frequent drought, and high fertilizer prices render fertilizer unprofitable for large subpopulations of African farmers. To examine these questions, we use large-scale, panel experimental data from maize field trials throughout Malawi to estimate the expected physical returns to fertilizer use conditional on a range of agronomic factors and weather conditions. Using these estimated returns and historical price and weather data, we simulate the expected profitability of fertilizer application over space and time. We find that the fertilizer bundles distributed under Malawi’s subsidy program are almost always profitable in expectation, although our results may be reasonably interpreted as upper-bound estimates among more skilled farmers given that the experimental subjects were not randomly selected.

Beyond agriculture versus nonagriculture: Decomposing sectoral growth–poverty linkages in five African countries

The development debate in Africa south of the Sahara is often cast as “agriculture versus nonagriculture.” Yet this view overlooks the heterogeneity within these broad sectors and the synergies between them. We estimate sectoral poverty–growth elasticities using economywide models for five African countries. Our detailed treatment of nonagriculture complements an expanding literature disaggregating the growth–poverty relationship in agriculture. Although our estimated elasticities are higher for agriculture given the importance of farm incomes for the poor, the extent to which this is true varies by country. In fact, elasticities for certain nonagricultural sectors are much closer to those in agriculture. Overall, elasticities are typically higher for trade and transport services and manufacturing (agroprocessing).

The impact of alternative input subsidy exit strategies on Malawi’s maize commodity market

This study has been conducted in order to generate evidence of the visibility of exit from farm input subsidies in an African context. The study simulates the impact of alternative exit strategies from Malawi’s farm input subsidy program on maize markets. The simulation is conducted using a multiequation partial equilibrium model of the national maize market, which is sequentially linked via a price-linkage equation to local rural maize markets. The model accounts for market imperfections prevailing in the country that arise from government price interventions. Findings show that some alternative exit strategies have negative and sustained impacts on maize yields, production, and acreage allocated to maize over the simulation period. Market prices rise steadily as a result of the implementation of different exit strategies. Despite higher maize prices, domestic maize consumption remains fairly stable, with a slow but increasing trend over the simulation period.

Who talks to whom in african agricultural research information networks?: The Malawi case

Although it is recognized that agricultural research plays a vital role in ensuring success of sectorwide agricultural development strategies, there has been little or no effort to explicitly link the research strategies of the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) in African countries to the research agenda that is articulated in sectorwide agricultural development strategies. This study fills that gap by analyzing the readiness of Malawi’s NARS to respond to the research needs of the national agricultural sector development strategy, namely the Agriculture Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp) program.

Exchange rate policy and devaluation in Malawi

This study demonstrates why devaluation was ultimately necessary in Malawi and also what its eventual impact might be in terms of prices, income distribution, and domestic production. Our approach is to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economywide impacts of foreign exchange shortages in Malawi under two alternative exchange rate regimes. The foreign exchange shortages are modeled by simulating the effect of actual shocks, including tobacco price declines and reductions in direct budgetary support or foreign direct investments. We then evaluate the economy’s response to these shocks under a fixed exchange rate regime and a flexible exchange rate regime.

A partial equilibrium model of the Malawi maize commodity market

This paper presents a model of the Malawi maize commodity market that is developed for use as a policy analysis tool. The model captures national and local maize market dynamics and the linkages existing within the maize market in the country. This research has been undertaken in order to provide policy makers with a robust tool which can be used to simulate the impact of policy changes on markets and households.

Understanding the role of research in the evolution of fertilizer policies in Malawi

This study examines the role of research in agricultural policy making in Malawi at a time when the Africa Union and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development have been seeking to promote greater evidenced-based decision making in agriculture. Drawing on both theory and actual past experiences documented in the literature, results are intended to improve our understanding of the extent to which research has played any role in influencing policy change in Malawi. This is done in the context of the evolution of the country’s fertilizer subsidy policies.

Mapping the contemporary fertilizer policy landscape in Malawi: a guide for policy researchers

A major rationale for conducting policy research is the contribution the results can make to policy improvement efforts. Over the years, funders of international policy research have placed increasing emphasis on making sure that the research they fund influences policymaking, challenging research organizations to document the impact of their research. To improve the integration of research into policy, stakeholders need to understand the policy process itself.

Pluralistic extension system in Malawi

This descriptive study was undertaken in order to assess the status of extension services in Malawi 10 years after implementation of the pluralistic and demand-driven extension policy. The findings would help practitioners and policy makers in their efforts to strengthen the extension system and enable it to serve the smallholder farmers more effectively. A worldwide extension assessment mail-out questionnaire was administered to 37 agricultural extension service providers to collect quantitative data on primary organizational goals, functions, and resources, and the linkages of different extension organizations within an agricultural innovation systems framework. The findings indicate that there were many players in agricultural extension service delivery as a result of the pluralistic policy but the government extension service remained the largest in terms of staffing and spread. The primary focus for most organizations was to help smallholder farmers improve their livelihoods with special efforts to target women. Government extension service was characterized by limited resources, but many field staff with low qualifications. Most of the other extension organizations had limited staff concentrated at higher levels with no grassroots staff thereby depending on government extension staff to reach farmers. Strong institutional linkages existed at district levels and local agencies as well as with non-governmental organizations but there were weak linkages with education and research institutions. Among others, the study calls for more investments in the government extension system while strengthening coordination with the civil society organizations to effectively serve the needs of smallholder farmers in Malawi.

All eggs in one basket: A reflection on Malawi’s dependence on agricultural growth strategy

Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in the study of structural transformation. However, Africa has received little attention despite the fact that its rural areas seem to be very poor and unproductive relative to urban areas. This case study provides a reflection on challenges faced and development strategies adopted by successive governments in Malawi. Malawi is a country with a complex history of rural-urban transformation. On one hand, Malawi has long been, and still is, a predominantly agrarian economy that has seemingly undergone relatively little rural-urban transformation. Malawi is still predominantly rural, most migration is rural-to-rural, and its economic base is heavily dominated by the production of maize (largely for domestic consumption) and tobacco (largely for exports). In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic policy situation and document patterns and trends in Malawi‘s rural-urban transformation in a systematic manner. To that end, we focus on a number of dimensions of this transformation, including urban population growth, migration patterns, employment trends, and a spatial analysis of agglomerations and connectivity to major urban centers. We then turn to explain these patterns, largely in terms of colonial, post-independence, and more recent history of agricultural policies. We also examine migration patterns (both rural-urban and rural-rural), and constraints on the development of the nonfarm sector. In conclusion it becomes apparent that Malawi must diversify its economy to sustain poverty reduction and economic growth. However, it is not clear whether Malawi has an obvious comparative advantage in any sizeable nonfarm sector and how exactly the economic diversification process is to be achieved.

Migratory responses to agricultural risk in Northern Nigeria

We investigate the extent in which northern Nigerian households engage in internal migration to insure against ex ante and ex post agricultural risk due to weather-related variability and shocks. We use data on the migration patterns of individuals over a 20-year period and temperature degree-days to identify agricultural risk. Controlling for ex ante and ex post risk, we find that households with higher ex ante risk are more likely to send migrants. Households facing hot shocks before the migrant's move tend to keep their male migrants in closer proximity. These findings suggest that households use migration as a risk management strategy in response to both ex ante and ex post risk, but that migration responses are gender-specific. These findings have implications not only for understanding the insurance motives of households, but also potential policy responses tied to climatic warming.

Droughts and floods in Malawi: Assessing the economywide effects

Malawi suffers frequent droughts and floods. In an economy that is heavily dependent on the agricultural sector, it is crucial to understand the implications of these extreme climate events. Not only are rural livelihoods affected due to the severe impacts on the agricultural sector, but nonfarm and urban households are also vulnerable given the strong production and price linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy. This study uses a general equilibrium model to estimate the economywide impacts of drought- and flood-related crop production losses. Climate simulations are based on production loss estimates from stochastic drought and flood models. Model results show that the economic losses due to extreme climate events are significant: Malawi loses 1.7 percent of its gross domestic product on average every year due to the combined effects of droughts and floods. This is equivalent to almost US$22 million in 2005 prices. Given their crop choices, it is smaller-scale farmers and those in the flood-prone southern regions of the country who are worst affected. However, urban and nonfarm households are not spared. Food shortages lead to sharp price increases that reduce urban households' disposable incomes. This study makes an important contribution by estimating the economywide impacts of extreme climate events. However, this is only the first step toward designing appropriate agricultural and development strategies that explicitly account for climate uncertainty.

Analyzing nutritional impacts of policies: An empirical study for Malawi

Widespread malnutrition in developing countries calls for appropriate strategies, presupposing good knowledge about nutritional impacts of policies. Little previous work has been carried out in this direction, especially with respect to micronutrients. We use representative household data from Malawi and develop a demand systems approach to estimate income and price elasticities of food demand and nutrient consumption. These estimates are applied for policy simulations. Given multiple nutritional deficiencies, income-related policies are better suited than price policies to improve nutrition. Although consumer price subsidies for maize improve calorie and mineral consumption, they can worsen vitamin consumption in urban areas.

Who should be interviewed in surveys of household income?

This study tests the null hypothesis that it is sufficient to interview only the household head to obtain accurate information on household income. The results show that using a husband's estimate of his wife's income does not produce statistically reliable results for poverty analysis. Estimates of the wife's income separately provided by the husband and wife agree in only 6 percent of the studied households. This indicates that although limiting interviews to one person can reduce the time and expense of household surveys, this appears to be detrimental to accuracy, and may lead to incorrect conclusions on the determinants of poverty.

Risks, ex-ante actions, and public assistance: Impacts of natural disasters on child schooling in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi

This paper uses panel data from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi to examine the impacts of natural disasters on schooling investments, with a particular focus on the roles of ex-ante actions and ex-post responses. We find that the importance of ex-ante actions depends on disaster risks and the likelihood of public assistance, potentially creating substitution between the two actions. We find that higher future probabilities of disaster increase the likelihood of agents holding more human capital and/or livestock relative to land; this asset-portfolio effect is significant in disaster-prone areas. Our empirical results support the roles of both ex-ante and ex-post (public assistance) responses in coping with disasters, but we see interesting variations across countries. In Ethiopia, public assistance plays a more important role than ex-ante actions in mitigating the impact of shocks on child schooling. In contrast, Malawi households rely more on private ex-ante actions than on public assistance. The Bangladesh example shows that active roles are played by both ex-ante and ex-post actions. These observations are consistent with our findings on the relationship between ex-ante actions and disaster risks. Our results also show that among ex-ante actions, human capital accumulated in the household prior to disasters helps mitigate the negative effects of a disaster in both the short and long runs.

Natural disasters, self-Insurance, and human capital investment: Evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi

This paper uses panel data from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi to examine the impacts of disasters on dynamic human capital production. Our empirical results show that accumulation of biological human capital prior to a disaster helps children maintain investments during the post-disaster period. Biological human capital formed in early childhood (for example, good long-term nutritional status) helps insure resilience to disasters by protecting schooling investments and outcomes, even though disasters have negative impacts on the actual investments (for example, by destroying schools). In Bangladesh, children with more biological human capital are less adversely affected by flood, and the rate of investment increases with the initial human capital stock during the post-disaster recovery process. In Ethiopia and Malawi, where droughts are relatively frequent, repeated drought exposure reduces schooling investments in some cases, with larger negative impacts seen among children who embody less biological human capital. Asset holdings prior to disaster (especially intellectual human capital stock in the household) also help maintain schooling investments to at least the same degree as the stock of human capital accumulated in the children prior to the disaster. Our results suggest that as the frequency of natural disasters increases due to global warming, the insurance value of investments in child nutrition will increase. Public investments in child nutrition therefore have the potential to effectively protect long-term human capital formation among children who are vulnerable to natural disasters.

Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Malawi

Social learning, selection, and HIV infection: Evidence from Malawi

This paper examines social learning regarding HIV infection, using HIV test results and sibling death data from Malawi. In the analysis, we compare hypotheses on social learning, selection. and common factors. Empirical results show that young women are less likely to be HIV-infected if they observed prime-age deaths among their siblings, whereas HIV infection is found to be positively related to prime-age sibling deaths among older women. This supports the social-learning hypothesis. Notably, schooling reinforces the social-learning effect of sibling deaths on HIV infection in women regardless of age. The above findings are robust to age (cohort) effects and unobserved location factors.

Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: Evidence from Malawi

This paper examines the effect of AIDS-related mortality of the prime-age adult population on marriage behavior among women in Malawi. A rise in prime-age adult mortality increases risks associated with the search for a marriage partner in the marriage market. A possible behavioral change in the marriage market in response to an increase in prime-age adult mortality is for marriage to occur earlier to avoid women?s exposure to HIV/AIDS risks under the condition that the risks are higher during singlehood. We test this hypothesis using micro data from Malawi, where prime-age adult mortality has drastically increased. In the analysis, we estimate prime-age adult mortality that sample women have observed during the adolescent period by utilizing retrospective information on the death of their siblings. Empirical analysis shows that excess prime-age adult mortality observed in the local marriage market (district) lowers the marriage age for females and reduces their premarital sexual activities. Since a lower age for first marriage implies less schooling completed, we expect that the average schooling achievement among women would decline. This behavioral change also implies a longer reproduction period during their marriage, which may lead to a higher fertility rate. However, the second implication should be discounted if the reduction of sexual activities also applies to the married population. Lower schooling attainment among women has further implications on human capital formation in the next generation.

Mortality, mobility, and schooling outcomes among orphans: Evidence from Malawi

A tremendous increase in the number of orphans associated with a sharp rise in prime-age adult mortality due to AIDS has become a serious problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, more than 30 percent of school-aged children have lost at least one parent in Malawi. Lack of investments in human capital and adverse conditions during childhood are often associated with lower living standards in the future. Therefore, if orphans face an increased risk of poverty, exploitation, malnutrition, and poorer access to health care and schooling, early intervention is critical so as to avoid the potential poverty trap. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of orphanhood/parental death on children’s mortality risks, migration behaviors, and schooling outcomes, by using household panel data from Malawi, which has the eighth-highest HIV prevalence rates in the world. A number of studies have analyzed the relationship between parental death and children’s school enrollment, but very few have considered mortality and mobility of orphans. This study uses the Malawi Complementary Panel Survey (CPS) conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and another institution between January 2000 and July 2004. Since these panel data do not track individuals that move to other households, we take into account sample attritions of children. This study uses three estimation methodologies to explore different aspects of impacts. First, we analyze regression models with controls for various sets of household and child characteristics and for village fixed effects to examine heterogeneous impacts of orphanhood across different types of households. Second, we employ household fixed-effect models to test the differential effects of orphanhood on welfare outcomes among different types of orphans living in the same household. Third, we examine the impact of recent parental death—parental death between 2000 and 2004—on schooling outcomes. Empirical results show that maternal orphans, as well as double orphans, tend to face higher mortality risks and lower schooling outcomes than paternal and non-orphans do. This is especially so for boys. Similarly, maternal and double orphans tend to move to other households more frequently. Compared to adolescent orphans, the impact on younger orphans who enrolled in school after the introduction of universal free primary education in 1994 is more muted, suggesting that free primary education policies may have mitigated adverse shocks from parental death. More interestingly, the impacts of orphanhood on schooling outcomes are significantly gender-dependent: boys face severer negative impacts of being orphans than girls do. These empirical results are robust to sample attrition due to mortality and mobility.