Policy Notes

Compounding stresses confront rural households in southern Malawi

Southern Malawi has historically been less food secure than the rest of the country, and the current lean season will be no different. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee expects 2,460,000 people in the Southern Region (29% of its population) to require humanitarian assistance at the peak of the lean season in February and March 2024, compared to 1,560,000 people in the Central Region (18% of its population) and 388,000 people in the Northern Region (15% of its population) (MVAC 2023). The Southern Region is home to 44% of Malawi’s population, but to 56% of those in need of humanitarian assistance. More people in the Southern Region are in danger of going hungry in the coming months than in the Central and Northern regions combined. But who are these people, what is behind their vulnerability, and what does the future have in store for them?

Mitigating the impact of El Niño on hunger in Malawi

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects the global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests.

Can urban growth reduce rural underemployment?

In a recent IFPRI working paper, Van Cappellen and De Weerdt (2023), we show how urban growth reduces underemployment in the rural hinterlands of towns and cities. But leveraging these labor market linkages between urban and rural areas for inclusive growth and poverty reduction will depend on overcoming two barriers. The first is that the jobs created are primarily low-skill, low productivity, and often casual (ganyu). Raising the human capital and productivity of the continually growing pool of rural workers, while simultaneously raising rural incomes to increase demand for the kind of off-farm goods and services they can provide, will be critical. Secondly, the labor market linkages between urban and rural areas operate primarily through the longer-established urban areas. Growth in Malawi’s newer emerging urban centers, while substantial, has not spilled over to rural labor markets yet. This is a missed opportunity and highlights the need for a geographically expansive urban investment strategy that includes fostering growth, agglomeration economies, and strong urban-rural linkages in Malawi’s smaller urban areas. Anchoring the development of smaller urban agglomerations in modernizing value chains, particularly in the agri-food sector, is one practical pathway for leveraging urbanization for inclusive development.

Can cooperatives commercialize farming in Malawi?

Smallholder farmers constitute the largest group of economic actors in Malawi and there is increasing recognition that the small scale at which they operate does not offer for most a pathway out of poverty, let alone to prosperity. Increasingly the idea is gaining traction that by joining forces through primary agricultural cooperatives, smallholder farmers across Malawi can reap many of the benefits that larger farmers on commercial estates have been able to realize, such as  negotiating better price for agricultural inputs through bulk purchases;  negotiating better prices for agricultural outputs through aggregation and storage;  adding value to raw agricultural products;  accessing professional equipment, such as tractors or irrigation;  hiring professional services, such as a farm or business manager; or  pooling contiguous pieces of land for more efficient farming. In this brief we summarize the findings of a detailed report (Davis et al., 2022) on research conducted to assess the current status of cooperatives in the country and what project implementers and policymakers can do to enable cooperatives to contribute to increased commercialization and professionalization of smallholder farming in Malawi.

Self-targeted fertilizer subsidies

If Malawi’s fertilizer subsidy program aims to increase food security in the country, it should strive to target the most productive farmers. Subsidy levels can be set to self-target this group of farmers. This would maximize output achieved with subsidized fertilizer and eliminate the need for costly and error-prone top-down targeting. Maximizing the productive capacity of the AIP In a previous policy note, we argued that by setting the farmer contribution to fertilizer subsidized under that Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) so that farmer demand matches what the program can supply, the government can maximize the total amount of fertilizer available for distribution under the program (Banda et al.,2022). In this note, we argue that a second advantage of this pricing strategy is that it ensures that each subsidized bag of fertilizer has the largest possible yield response, thus maximizing the additional amount of food produced through the program.

Pricing farmer contributions under AIP

The market price of fertilizer in Malawi has, in nominal terms, more than tripled compared to two years ago. The price hikes were both unexpected and beyond the control of the government, linked to global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This changed global reality reinforces the need to rethink the way in which Malawi approaches its agricultural input subsidies. A number of options for reforming the AIP have been outlined in recent policy work, but all have medium to long term implementation horizons. We will not repeat these here and instead refer the interested reader to Chadza and Duchoslav (2022), De Weerdt and Duchoslav (2022), and Nyondo et al. (2022). This policy note discusses a strategy that can be implemented readily and immediately, potentially still this year, to ensure that the budget allocated to fertilizer subsidies has the highest possible effect on food security in the country. It also discusses how the strategy, once adopted, can be used to phase out the AIP, while ensuring allocative efficiency within the program. This can be achieved by, each year, fixing the budget at a lower point and conducting the same optimization exercise.

Are fertilizer subsidies in Malawi value for money?

It is easy enough to calculate how much the Government of Malawi spends on subsidizing chemical fertilizer. Last year, for example, this was MWK 120 billion (about US$ 150 million) taking up over 50% of the agricultural budget. It is much harder, however, to calculate the benefits that these subsidies bring about and how they stack up against the costs. In this policy note, we combine multiple methods and sources of data to narrow down the range of possible benefit estimates, compare it to the cost of subsidies, and propose changes to current policies to make fertilizer subsidies more efficient and affordable.

Regulation of agricultural markets in Malawi

Agriculture holds special significance in Malawi, because most Malawian households depend primarily on this sector for income and food security. Therefore, legislation surrounding the agricultural sector, and the foundation it lays for the sector’s governance, are fundamental to the development prospects of the country. At their best, agricultural laws encourage farmers, traders (both domestic and international), and processors of agricultural commodities to fully engage and further invest in the agricultural sector. At their worst, they undermine confidence to do so.

Impacts of the war in Ukraine on Malawi

Although geographically distant, there are multiple channels through which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can affect the lives of Malawians. Before the invasion, Russia’s and Ukraine’s exports accounted for about 12% of total calories (Glauber and Laborde, 2022) traded in the world, and the two countries were among the top five global exporters for many important cereals and oilseeds, including wheat, barley, sunflowers and maize (Figure 1). Ukraine is also an important source of sunflower seed oil, supplying about 50% of the global market. These exports have now largely seized as a result of war-related disruptions to production and logistics as well as economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus, its ally. This shock reduction of supply is driving up food commodity prices worldwide and will continue to do so while the current situation persists. The ongoing fighting has already disrupted the planting of barley and will soon disrupt the planting of maize, wheat, and oilseeds. The choke on global supply will thus continue for months (if not years) to come.

Guiding principles of AIP reform

Malawi’s Affordable Inputs Program (AIP) currently combines an economic and a social objective, respectively: (i) increasing agricultural production; and (ii) assisting poor farming households.

Promoting participation in value chains for pulses in Malawi: Who and where to target

In this Policy Note, we examine both household and spatial factors that may drive participation by smallholder farming households in commercial value chains for pulses, legume crops that are primarily harvested for their dry seed. Here the focus is on value chains for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata), and pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan). Bean and pigeonpea are particularly important secondary crops within many smallholder farming systems in Malawi, while cowpea is less common. All are commonly grown as intercrops in smallholder farming systems, primarily with maize.

Promoting participation in oilseed value chains in Malawi: Who and where to target

By increasing their production for the market and realizing greater incomes, smallholder farming households can significantly accelerate local agricultural and rural economic development. The increased income of these commercially oriented farmers increases their demand for the goods, services, and labor that can be supplied by other, often poorer, households in their community, expanding local non-farm employment opportunities and raising incomes for those other households. Appropriately targeting agricultural development efforts towards commercially oriented farming households has important second-round economic development benefits in their communities, effects which cannot be achieved without properly identifying such households. In this Policy Note, we examine both household and spatial factors that may drive participation by smallholder farming households in oilseed value chains, focusing on those for groundnut, soyabean, and sunflower. Groundnut has been an important secondary crop within many smallholder farming systems across Malawi for several generations, used both for own consumption within the household and for sale. Soyabean and sunflower are more recent introductions and are primarily grown for commercial sale by both smallholders and commercial farmers. Annual production and yield levels for these crops in recent years are shown in Table 1.

Can a maize price band work in Malawi?

Price band schemes have been used in many countries to try and set minimum and maximum prices between which staple food prices vary. This is typically done using a buffer stock scheme, which sells grain from a reserve when retail prices are higher than a pre-determined ceiling price and buys grain to store in the reserve when prices fall below a pre-determined floor price. Malawi has attempted to stabilize the price of its main staple, maize, for many years. Since 1999, this has been the dual responsibility of the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA), which manages the nation’s Strategic Grain Reserve, and the Agricultural Marketing and Development Corporation (ADMARC), an agricultural marketing parastatal with an extensive network of depots and warehouses throughout the country. The precise division of responsibilities for maize price stabilization between the NFRA and ADMARC is unclear, although it is ADMARC which has the mandate to buy from farmers and sell to consumers while NFRA’s principal role is to manage the Strategic Grain Reserve. This note updates previous IFPRI analysis which examined, based on historical maize prices, how often ADMARC would need to intervene in different markets to defend a plausible range of ceiling and floor prices. The floor price corresponds to the minimum farmgate price announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) at the beginning of each harvest season while the ceiling price corresponds to the sales price of maize at ADMARC depots. The price band is then the gap between the floor and ceiling price. To defend a set floor price, ADMARC would need to buy off any excess supply on the market, thereby creating an upward pressure on maize prices. Conversely, to ensure the ceiling prices are not exceeded, the NFRA would need to release maize for ADMARC to sell on the market to create a downward pressure and bring the prices down to the ceiling price. International experience indicates that defending floor/ceiling prices in all circumstances is a very expensive proposition.

Towards designing better contracts: Assessing contract preferences of small farmers and buyers: Evidence from a choice experiment in cotton and tea schemes in Malawi: Synopsis

While contract farming provides opportunities to link smallholder farmers to markets, its sustainability depends on how the interests of both farmers and buyers are addressed. Previous studies analyze farmers’ preferences for contracts, but buyers’ preferences for contracts and design attributes are hardly examined. The author contributes to the knowledge gap by analyzing farmers’ and buyers’ preferences for contracts and design attributes, and the similarities and differences in preferences using a discrete choice experiment with 505 cotton farmers and 512 tea farmers in southern Malawi.

Market information and access to structured markets by small farmers and traders: Evidence from an action research experiment in central Malawi: Synopsis

Structured markets are organized platforms where economic agents such as farmers, traders, processors and financial institutions enter transparent and legal trading and financial arrangements (East Africa Grain Council 2013). Structured markets are important for the stabilization of volumes and prices of agricultural commodities (Hernandez et al. 2017) and diversification of foreign exchange earnings (Edelman et al. 2014). If supported by export mandates, structured markets for cereals and legumes could also limit informal cross-border trade and increase agricultural exports (Government of Malawi 2016). They could potentially also provide better statistics on volumes traded to aid in the planning, production, and marketing of crops in Malawi (Baulch and Gondwe 2017).

Structure, conduct and performance of maize markets in Malawi: Synopsis

This policy note summarizes Working Paper 29 (Ochieng et al., 2019), which investigates the SCP of Malawi’s maize market during the 2018/19 main marketing and lean seasons and provides policy suggestions on how to improve Malawi’s maize marketing system.

Malawi’s challenging employment landscape: Any signs of structural transformation? Synopsis

This policy note examines employment patterns for evidence of the extent to which a structural transformation is underway in Malawi. We explore whether Malawi’s labor force shifted out of the subsistence agriculture sector and into the industry and service sectors. To better understand the role of the large youth population in structural transformation, we assess the extent of youth employment in agriculture and in services, and the factors shaping their choices. We conclude with a discussion of how policy can support transformation and job creation for youth.

Commodity exchanges and warehouse receipts in Malawi: Current status and their implications for the development of structured markets: Synopsis

Malawi is unusual in having not one, but two commodity exchanges (Comex): The Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ACE), established in 2006, and Auction Holdings Commodity Exchange (AHCX) Ltd, established in 2013. In addition, Malawi has several parallel ‘systems’ that advance collateral financing using warehouse receipts (WR). After providing an overview of the international commodity exchange experience, this policy note describes the landscape in which Malawi’s two agricultural Comex and warehouse receipts ‘systems’ (WRS) operate. The policy note concludes with recommendations on how best to maximize the performance and benefits of the commodity exchanges and warehouse receipts.

Examining perceptions of food assistance on household food security and resilience in Malawi

Malawi is extremely vulnerable to shocks and recurrent food crises (Barrett & Headey 2014). Malawi also suffers from persistently high levels of undernutrition (DHS 2016). Humanitarian aid has played an important role in alleviating hunger during emergencies, such as those in 2015-16 and 2016-17. However, the Government of Malawi and Development partners recognize that emergency responses are not a sustainable solution. This qualitative study examines the characteristics of resilient households and perceived effects of programs to improve food security and resilience from the perspective of the beneficiaries and communities they serve.

Impacts of the 2016/17 food insecurity response program on maize prices in Malawi: Synopsis

In early 2016, Malawi suffered its second consecutive year of harvest failure. An emergency was declared in April 2016 and the resulting humanitarian response, known as the Food Insecurity Response Program (FIRP), was of unprecedented scale: almost 40 percent of the population received in-kind food or cash transfers (or both) at an estimated cost of US$ 287 million. Yet despite the extensive nature of the response, prices for the main food staple, maize, stayed relatively ‘flat’ throughout most of the year and then declined during the pre-harvest lean season. This paper examines this paradox, focusing on why in-kind food distribution did not depress maize prices while cash transfers did not raise them. Using daily information on maize prices, and food and cash transfers from ten major markets during the height of the FIRP, we employ time series methods to analyze the properties of the series and model the formation of maize prices using autoregressive distributed lag models.

Priorities for irrigation investment in Malawi

This policy note explores priorities for investment in irriga-tion in Malawi, and examines the trade-offs between invest-ment in new irrigation infrastructure, versus rehabilitation and maintenance of existing irrigation infrastructure. By reviewing empirical studies and government publications, the note exam-ines investment trends in the irrigation sector, and further identifies possible channels through which maximum benefits can be accrued from irrigation in Malawi.

Traditional leadership and social support in Southern Malawi

This study presents qualitative findings on the dynamics of household and community resources for food security and nutrition in Southern Malawi. We explore how kinship and social obligations influence the allocation of social support, and focus on the role of village chiefs. We then examine the implications for state- and donor-led social programs in light of the norms that permeate village life.

The case for structured markets in Malawi

After reviewing Malawi’s recent export experience, this policy note examines the types and potential contributions of structured markets to export marketing with a specific focus on commodity exchanges and export mandates. An export mandate means that a commodity cannot be exported except via a structured market.

Localized public investment and agricultural performance in Malawi: Synopsis

This note focuses on how public investments affect crop productivity in Malawi’s districts, and estimates localized public expenditure multipliers. We use these multipliers to analyze whether government expenditures have slowed or accelerated agriculture sector growth, a topic of great interest to public pol-icy makers. Given the relatively large share of government ex-penditure in agriculture sector investment in Malawi, public ex-penditure policies may play an important role in agricultural productivity dynamics.

Under what policy and market conditions will Malawi’s smallholder farmers switch from tobacco to soyabean?

Malawi has the potential to reorient its smallholder agriculture away from being primarily directed towards assuring household subsistence and self-sufficiency to increased commercial production, including of soyabean. This shift would reduce the country’s reliance on tobacco and diversify its agricultural production and exports. As a legume, furthermore, soyabean would also have the additional benefit of improving soil health, through biological nitrogen fixation and crop rotations, and child nutrition, if the nutritious soyabean is consumed at home or increased income from soya sales is used to provide children with more diverse and healthier diets. But this reorientation will require that government creates the conditions for private sector to invest in the increased production of soyabean, both through the support of input loan packages and a more stable marketing environment for the crop.

Are Malawi’s maize and soya trade restrictions causing more harm than good? A summary of evidence and practical alternatives

Since the early 2000s, the government of Malawi has used trade restrictions, export bans in particular, to control trade flows for maize and soya, among other crops. Maize export bans, justified in the name of national food security, have been in place more or less continuously since 2005, with the ban lifted temporarily in 2007-08 and 2009-11. Export bans on soya, used to benefit domestic vegetable oil processors and the poultry industry in the form of lower input prices, were imposed several times for a few months at a time between 2010 and 2012. In 2013, government scrapped soya export bans as a trade policy tool, but since 2015 has explored other measures to limit soya exports, including an export levy and a mandate that all soya exports be processed through a single trading company.

Have market policies turned Malawi’s large-scale farmers into subsistence maize producers?

In the last two decades, food security policy in Malawi has focused on enhancing the maize productivity of smallholder farmers, primarily through the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) (Chirwa and Dorward 2013). While this has raised maize yields, production shocks, such as droughts and floods, continue to result in wide-spread food insecurity in the country. In 2014/15, for example, a delayed onset of the rainy season, coupled with dry spells and flooding in different parts of the country, reduced maize production by about 30 percent (MoAIWD 2016), resulting in 2.8 million people requiring emergency food assistance (FEWSNET 2015). At the time of writing in mid-2016, the effects of El Niño were predicted to reduce maize production further. Government estimated maize production to be 2.4 million metric tons for the 2015/16 season, the lowest since FISP was introduced in 2005/06 (MoAIWD 2016). Even more Malawians are likely to be pushed into food insecurity.

The national extension policy of Malawi – lessons from implementation

The Government of Malawi put in place the National Extension Policy in 2000 to promote the provision of quality agricultural extension services. Fifteen years after its introduction, while action has been taken on some compo-nents, many key elements of the policy remain largely unimplemented. This note outlines the evidence on why much progress has not been achieved on coordination, stakeholder accountability, demand-focus, and pluralism within Malawi’s agricultural extension services. Over the past decade, public extension services have largely been under-funded while government has focused on implementing its flagship program in the agriculture sector, the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). The somewhat inconsistent impact of FISP suggests to some experts that inadequate provision of information to farmers on best agricultural production practices might account for this mixed perfor-mance. In early 2015, during extensive district-level consultations on the content of the draft National Agriculture Policy, extension services were highlighted by stakeholders as the most important priority area for increasing agri-cultural productivity in Malawi. However, tough decisions and bold actions, rather than complacency and minor fixes, will be required to transform the extension system to one that contributes significantly to improved agricultural development outcomes. This Policy Note proposes several priority areas for consideration.

Is Malawi’s mix of maize market policies ultimately harming food security?

High levels of poverty and food insecurity combined with weak food markets have prompted many African govern-ments for political and socioeconomic reasons to assume the responsibility of ensuring adequate domestic food supply at reasonable prices. Malawi is no different, with significant government intervention in the maize market on both the production and marketing sides. Interventions include providing farm input subsidies and recommending minimum farm gate prices to encourage maize production; supporting a grain marketing board and a national food reserve agency to stabilize maize prices and provide emergency food assistance; and controlling international maize trade, mainly through restrictions on maize exports. This note explores the effects of government intervention in Malawi’s maize market, and proposes medium- to long-term policy guidelines that will improve the functioning of these interventions. These considerations are timely as Malawi attempts to transform its agricultural sector into a more commercial and outward-oriented one.

Promoting exports of low-aflatoxin groundnut from Malawi

Malawi’s National Export Strategy is built on the premise that the promotion of exports and domestic value addition can contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction in a meaningful way. Groundnut shows particularly high potential because regional de-mand is strong and Malawi’s farmers are already quite familiar with improved methods for growing the crop (Government of Malawi, 2013). In spite of institutional weaknesses that make exporting te-dious and time consuming (Aberman & Edelman, 2014), groundnut exports volumes grew by 18 percent per year between 2004 and 2014 (International Trade Centre, 2014; Malawi Revenue Authority, 2014). However, high levels of aflatoxin contamination threaten to disrupt these positive trends: 49 percent of groundnut sold in Malawi’s local markets and 60 percent of those sold in shops and supermarkets were found to have aflatoxin levels exceeding those considered safe for human consumption (Emmott & Stephens, 2014).

Synopsis: Challenges to soya export promotion: An institutional analysis of trade policy in Malawi

In spite of relatively strong per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, Malawi continues to face a variety of economic challenges, including severe balance of payments shortfalls, fiscal deficits, and pervasive poverty. Its economy relies heavily on agriculture, which contributes one-third of the country’s GDP and make up 90 percent of export revenues. Tobacco alone accounts for 60 percent of Malawi’s exports by value (ITC 2014). The country’s reliance on tobacco as its major export revenue earner leaves its economy vulnerable to exogenous shocks. Furthermore, with the official poverty rate at 50 percent of the population and an estimated 1.9 million people having been at risk of food insecurity in 2013-2014, economic shocks potentially can have dire human consequences (FEWSNET 2013).

Malawi's farm input subsidy program: Where do we go from here?

Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) has dominated the agriculture and food security policy landscape in the country since its inception in 2005/06. FISP is now credited—or blamed, depending on one’s viewpoint— for a revival of agricultural input subsidies across Africa as a tool to raise crop productivity and reduce poverty and food insecurity. This follows global reporting about Malawi’s dramatic decline in food insecurity after implementing a subsidy program against expert advice. While historically the debate around the desirability of input subsidies tended to focus on whether short-term gains outweighed the long-term opportunity costs of forgone growth-enhancing investments in infrastructure, research, or extension services, a growing body of literature now questions the ability of these programs to even generate short-term, on-farm benefits that outweigh costs. Although discarding FISP may be political suicide in the short term, anecdotal evidence suggests a gradual but marked shift in Malawian public opinion about the effectiveness or even desirability of FISP. This note draws on the recent evaluation literature to identify key policy lessons so far, but also to highlight areas that require further analysis before policymakers can consider major reforms.

The challenge of Africa’s nitrogen drought: Some indicators from the Malawian experience

Years of continuous cultivation with little or no use of external inputs to restore soil nutrients has resulted in a situation in which crop production in a number of African countries is now limited by nutrient deficiencies – nitrogen, in particular, which is crucial to healthy plant growth. This widespread problem has been described as a “nitrogen drought”. Attempts to remedy this situation using only organic inputs have largely failed to keep up with the rate of nutrient loss. This policy note uses Malawi as an example of a country facing these conditions and in which the level of household food production is largely determined by the availability of nitrogen in the soil.

Resettlement and food security

In 2011, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) collected data for the final round of a panel survey to evaluate how the resettlement project affected the food security of program participants in the long term. Although programs like the CBRLDP appear in other African countries, few quantitative evaluations measure the short- or longterm impact of resettlement policies. However, great lessons can be learned from ongoing research on this matter in terms of the roles of land reform and migration in improving food security in sub-Saharan Africa.

How best to target agricultural subsidies? The case for an indicator-based targeting system in Malawi

Over the past few years Malawi made remarkable progress toward increasing its national maize production and achieving food security owing to its long-running policy of subsidizing fertilizer. The implementation of these subsidy programs is continuously being improved upon as the country learns from past experiences.1 Recent evaluations of the current Farm Input Subsidy Program by Dorward and Chirwa (2011, 2012) suggest that various components of the program have been redesigned over time. These include timeliness of fertilizer delivery, fertilizer coupon receipts, regional distribution, area targeting, allocation and distribution processes, and coupon use and re-demption. However, the issue of beneficiary identification and targeting remains a challenge for the program. Draw-ing on recent research by Houssou and Zeller (2010, 2011, 2012), this note proposes an alternative approach to effec-tively target the poor within the group of potential program beneficiaries. In our analysis we are mindful of the fact that targeting criteria for the current program are vague at best. One interpretation of these criteria is that the pro-gram intends to target the “productive poor”, and since poverty is widespread in Malawi, some would argue that the focus of the targeting mechanism should be on identifying farmers who would make best use of subsidized fertilizer (e.g., as measured by their marginal productivity per unit of fertilizer applied). Many evaluations, however, have criti-cized the program for not being pro-poor enough; hence a

Tracking the Performance of the Malawi Agricultural Sector: 2010/11 to 2011/12

In June 2012, a Technical Working Group on Monitoring and Evaluation (TWG on M&E) was established in Malawi to track agricultural sector performance under the overarching sector strategy, the Agricultural Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp). The TWG on M&E brings together a wide variety of stakeholders representing the public sector, non-state actors, and development partners. Each stakeholder provides updates on key indicators considered critical for evalu-ating the performance of Malawi’s agriculture sector. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), under the auspices of the Malawi Strategy Support Program (MaSSP), provides technical support to the TWG on M&E. Over the period September 2011 to September 2012, an analysis of the consolidated indicator set reveals that some aspects of the agriculture sector improved greatly, while others have either stagnated or declined.

Budget allocation, maize yield performance, and food security outcomes under Malawi’s farm input subsidy programme

Food security in Malawi is generally equated with adequate maize production as the country’s main staple crop accounts for more than 60 percent of total food consumption. Malawi has a long history of subsidizing agricultural inputs, either as a general policy to ensure national-level food security or as a response to poor harvests. As such, agricultural input subsidies targeted specifically at maize production for food self-sufficiency are a key element in the Agricultural Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp), the agricultural development framework for the government of Malawi. Since 2005, the government has implemented the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP), which has been widely credited for bringing about macro-level food security in Malawi. In recent years, however, the program has come under scrutiny amid concerns about its financial sustainability and continued food security concerns at local level. This article explores the budget allocation, maize yield response, and food security outcomes of the FISP over its implementation period.

Trade Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons for Malawian Trade Policy

Trade integration is a potentially powerful driver of economic growth in developing countries, particularly if it creates export opportunities and promotes value addition in manufacturing sectors. Given the prominence of agriculture in Sub-Saharan African countries—both as a source of employment and as an earner of foreign exchange—increased market access for agricultural exports is a common interest in these countries’ trade negotiations. Trade negotiations, however, typically involve a complex set of interactions, bilaterally, regionally, or multilaterally. Therefore, countries need to understand how they might be affected by these agreements, and also how different agreements might interact with one another. This brief provides some insight on the matter for Sub-Saharan Africa in general, and Malawi in particular, based on simulations of actual, proposed, or hypothetical trade integration scenarios.

Research Capacity for Operationalization of the Malawi Agricultural Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp)

The Agricultural Sector-Wide Approach (ASWAp) aims to support priority activities in the agricultural sector in Malawi that would increase agricultural productivity, reduce hunger, enable people access to nutritious foods, and increase the contribution of agroprocessing to economic growth.i ASWAp directly supports the objective of the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) of reducing poverty and transforming the economy from an importing and consuming to a manufacturing and exporting one. Agricultural research plays a vital role in making the ASWAp programme a success; yet, to date there has been no effort to explicitly link the research strategies of the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) institutions to the ASWAp research agenda. Thus, as a first step toward facilitating the development of an “ASWAp-responsive” research strategy for NARS institutions, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), under the auspices of its Malawi Strategy Support Program (MaSSP), conducted an assessment of the strategic research and planning capacity within NARS institutions and the general readiness of NARS institutions to respond to ASWAp research needs.

Maize consumption estimation and dietary diversity assessment methods in Malawi

Food security in Malawi is generally equated with adequate maize production, the country’s main staple crop, which accounts for more than 60 percent of total food production. However, reliable estimates of maize consumption are also useful measures for assessing food security. Further, information on the level of dietary diversity in the country can be used by policymakers and program managers to evaluate progress towards nutrition goals. This policy brief is based on a triangulation exercise evaluating alternative data sources for estimating maize availability and consumption as proxy measures of food security in Malawi. Data sources used for the comparison estimates include the Integrated Household Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Balance Sheets, and documentation from the Malawi office of the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee. The brief also examines how best to use information from the country’s second Integrated Household Survey to assess the level of dietary diversity in Malawi as a measure of nutrition security. Comparative statistics are applied to assess the reliability and accuracy of available production, consumption, and dietary diversity data, with particular emphasis on maize.

Who Talks to Whom? An Analysis of Information Flows in Malawi’s Agricultural Research Network

A Social Network Analysis (SNA) of agricultural research institutions in Malawi was performed to investigate networking and knowledge sharing in relation to the implementation of the Agricultural Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp). SNA helps explain how the different actors relate to one another, and how these relationships affect the generation, exchange, and use of information and knowledge in ASWAp implementation. The ASWAp is Malawi’s Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) compact. It articulates Malawi’s ambition to transform and diversify its agricultural sector with the aims of raising agricultural productivity, improving food and nutrition security, and increasing the incomes of rural people. Agricultural research plays a vital role in making the programme a success.

Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition linkages in Malawi

While economic growth is generally acknowledged as a necessary precondition for reducing poverty, relatively little is known about how growth and nutrition are related. Therefore, questions persist regarding how to leverage economic policies so that they have a larger impact on nutrition. In recent years the Malawian government allocated a large share of its resources to the Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP). Subsidized fertilizer and seed mainly for maize production led to rapid GDP growth during 2005-2010. It is obvious that an abundant supply of the calorie-laden staple maize is good for reducing calorie deficiency; however, it is less clear how FISP has affected micronutrient deficiencies, which are high in Malawi. This brief explores diverse poverty and nutritional outcomes of recent maize-led growth in Malawi and considers outcomes under two plausible future growth scenarios.

Weather insurance for smallholder tobacco farmers in Malawi

Agriculture is the backbone of Malawi's economy: it accounts for about 34 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), over 90 percent of export earnings, and employment of 85 percent of the population through farming, processing, transportation, and marketing. Given this, and that most farming in Malawi is rain-fed, both Malawi's economy and smallholder farmers are highly vulnerable to variability in rainfall. Since 2005, the World Bank has piloted index-based weather insurance (IBWI) in Malawi to reduce climate-related risks to the agricultural sector. Maize and groundnut farmers were initially targeted, and the pilot programs were expanded in 2007 to cover loans provided to participating smallholder tobacco farmers. In the event of a drought or excess rainfall, the insurance repays part of or the entire loan. The main objective is to reduce loan defaults resulting from weather shocks, increasing farmer access to credit in the future.

The impacts of agricultural input subsidies in Malawi

Achieving food self-sufficiency on a national basis is a high priority for the government of Malawi. The goal of the Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) is to enhance food self-sufficiency by increasing smallholder farmers' access to and use of improved agricultural inputs, thereby boosting the incomes of resource-poor farmers. This policy note summarizes the results of recent research by Chibwana, Fisher, Masters, and Shively (CFMS 2010) and by Chibwana, Fisher, and Shively (CFS 2010), on the effectiveness of FISP voucher distribution to smallholder farmers, and on impacts of the FISP on fertilizer use, maize yields, and land allocation. The studies used data from a 2009 survey of 380 farm households in two districts in central and southern Malawi.

Poverty in Malawi: Current status and knowledge gaps

As in many developing countries, poverty reduction is a primary development goal in Malawi. The country is committed to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which seek, among other things, to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. Over the years, the Malawian government has pursued poverty reduction efforts through various strategies emphasizing economic growth, infrastructural development, and the provision of basic social services. These strategies have included: the Poverty Alleviation Program (1994); the Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy (2002-2005); and, more recently, the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) (2006-2011 and 2011-2016). Despite these various policies and measures, poverty remains widespread in Malawi. This brief reviews the poverty literature and data in Malawi with the aim of developing a poverty profile, describing recent poverty trends, and identifying the determinants of poverty. Based on the analysis, existing knowledge and research gaps are identified and briefly discussed.

Could low adoption of modern maize varieties in Malawi be explained by farmers' interest in diverse seed characteristics?

Food security in Malawi depends on production of enough maize, the country's staple crop. In Malawi, more than 90 percent of farm households grow maize and this grain accounts for 60 percent of total calorie consumption. As opportunities for land-extensive agricultural growth are reduced, use of modern maize production technologies has become essential for producing sufficient maize to feed Malawi's people. Although the use of high-yielding modern maize seed is important for food security, some farmers are resisting complete adoption of these varieties. Understanding how farmer preferences and circumstances influence their decisions to adopt or increase the use of modern maize seed varieties is necessary. Otherwise, researchers may not develop appropriate technologies and policymakers may not design and execute the most effective policies for promoting improved varieties and technologies. This policy brief draws on key findings from a recent study by Lunduka, Fisher, and Snapp (2011) in which factors that influence the decisions of Malawian smallholder farmers to grow modern maize varieties were examined.

The determinants of food insecurity in rural Malawi: Implications for agricultural policy

Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Malawi

Agriculture employs three-quarters of the population of Malawi. It makes up more than forty percent of the economy and sixty percent of all exports. Yet productivity in agriculture—measured as the amount of output for a given amount of inputs—is considerably lower than it could be, given Malawi’s agricultural resources. Efforts to expand the economy and reduce poverty must involve agriculture. Where should the Government of Malawi invest?

Economic losses and poverty effects of droughts and floods in Malawi

Droughts and floods are a capricious part of life for many Malawians. The country depends heavily on rain-fed agriculture and so it is crucial that we understand the implications of these climate events. Not only are rural livelihoods affected, but urban households are also vulnerable to food shortages and rising prices. Finding ways to overcome the losses from droughts and floods is a policy imperative.

Analyzing the nutritional impact of policies in Malawi

Reducing malnutrition, including undernutrition (insufficient calorie intake) and micronutrient deficiencies (insufficient intake of vitamins and minerals) is a high priority for Malawi and many developing country governments, closely linked to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. However, effective policy intervention requires knowing what causes malnutrition and how different development policies affect the nutritional status of the population. This brief summarizes results of a recent study by Olivier Ecker which examined the nutritional impacts of income and price policies in Malawi, using household survey data and a food demand system model.