MaSSP Project Notes

× This note provides an assessment of the first year of implementation of the Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) from the perspective of rural households and communities in Malawi. The data come from a nationally representative panel survey of 2,449 rural households in 299 communities. At the household level, users of inorganic fertilizer, the amount applied per farmer, and productivity and production all increased in the 2020/21 cropping season compared to the 2015/16 and 2017/18 seasons. Almost all sampled communities reported more positive experiences with AIP than with the previous Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP), mainly because of the expanded coverage and greater number of beneficiaries. However, farmers reported major challenges in the computerized system (or network) for verifying beneficiaries, limited number of selling points, and limited and late supply of inputs, causing congestion and different forms of corruption and harassment in the selling points. The network, number of selling depots, procurement processes, input-provider selection processes, and governance must improve for more farming households to realize benefits from AIP. Further, AIP must be accompanied in the long term by better soil management practices.

× This report provides a farm-level analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, 12–15 months in, using a nationally representative rural household survey conducted in June–July 2021. We draw three major observations from the survey. First, farming activities, access to inputs and extension services, production, and sales were largely unaffected by the crisis. There were temporary challenges in accessing inputs during lockdown and mobility restrictions, and input prices and transportation costs increased; however, production and sales volume and value were largely unaffected. Second, although farming was not affected, other nonfarm livelihoods of a large proportion of farmers were negatively affected because of lower demand and fewer buyers. Eighty-two percent of rural households were engaged in various nonfarm livelihoods, and 32 percent reported negative impacts of the crisis on their nonfarm incomes. Third, direct responses from sample households indicate no negative impacts of the crisis on food access and food consumption by most rural households. Comparisons between 2018 and 2021 of various food security indicators show improvements in food access and dietary diversity. Improvements are likely attributable to better harvests overall and greater awareness of the need to eat healthy and nutritious foods to combat COVID-19 and other diseases. Results show overall resilience of rural households and the agriculture sector amid the COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, the survey was conducted right after harvest, and the situation needs to be monitored during the lean season.

× Although sustainable intensification (SI) practices such as intercropping of cereals with legumes are believed to offer productivity benefits to farmers, the adoption of cereal-legume intercropping remains low in Malawi. We use dynamic programing to assess the impact of four key constraints that smallholder farmers face. These constraints are i) land, ii) labor, ii) input market access and iv) output market access. We use the model to evaluate farmers’ optimal production plans across six scenarios in which these constraints are relaxed and compare their production plans across these scenarios. The farmer’s decision process given these alternative scenarios is modeled to assess the impact of these constraints on SI adoption decisions. Our model preliminary results suggest that both resource (land and labor) and institutional constraints (access to input and output market) play a key role in influencing smallholder farmers’ SI adoption decisions. The model results help to illustrate how labor constraints, land constraints and limited access to input and output market affect smallholders’ adoption of cereal-legume intercropping in Malawi.

× This note analyzes the prices received by 1,048 maize and 1,265 soybean farmers in Malawi during the main harvest marketing season of 2020. Between April and July, whenever they sold maize or soybeans, farmers were asked to report the prices they received by calling or texting a toll-free number managed by Farm Radio Trust. Reported prices were then compared to the minimum farmgate prices set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security. Our findings show that 76 percent of maize farmers and 90 percent of soybean farmers sold their crops at below the official minimum farmgate prices. On average, prices received by these farmers were approximately three-quarters of official minimum farmgate prices.

× An export mandate means that exports can only be made through a structured market, such as a commodity exchange or a formal trading floor/platform where agricultural value chain actors (farmers, commodity exchanges, millers, processors, exporters) conduct organized, regulated trade, usually with specific financial arrangements. In Malawi, a singular example is the tobacco export mandate which has existed for over 70 years with a formal and organized market structure through the auction floors. Only a few other African countries also have export mandates, including Ethiopia (coffee and sesame) and Rwanda (coffee and tea). Some West African countries also only permit exports of cotton through their state marketing boards.

× This note has been prepared by IFPRI Malawi at the request of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the United States Agency for International Development Malawi (USAID), and estimates how much export revenue Malawi has lost due the export ban on maize during the summer/autumn of 2017. Using three potential export locations in East Africa, transportation costs to these locations from central Malawi, and two alternative estimates of Malawi’s likely maize surplus, this note estimates that Malawi lost between MWK 25 billion and MWK 69 billion (approximately $34 to $95 million) from the export ban in the 2016/17 agricultural year.